Astrologian Lore

[Vexander]

It doesn't make sense (to me).

The Time/Space/Star Mage part, that makes perfect sense. It meshes very nicely with Sharlayan as it has thus far been presented to us (a nation of scholars, academics, scientists, and mages). That part is all very nicely quantifiable, observable, and logical (within the setting).

Its the Fate/Luck/Future-Seeing part that I cannot wrap my head around. At least, I can't wrap my head around this, because this class as we know it and play it comes from SHARLAYAN, a nation of Scholars, Academics, Scientists, and Mages, people who would outright dismiss fortune-telling as self-flattering nonsense by attention-craving mages.

The Lorebook tells us that Lewphon conducted a study of the ancient civilizations and their prophesying and (somehow) found conclusive evidence that there is measurable, quantifiable data to indicate it is not nonsense, but accurate in some form, at least when applied to the stars.

This is where my issue starts cropping up.

This ability to foresee events to come will have one of two primary outcomes of perspective for the players. It'll either damage the integrity of the existing lore and set a terrible precedent for all future events by establishing this as an infallible source of meta-knowledge, or this ability to foresee events is not accurate and thus not significant in the slightest, despite being presented to us in the questing for Astrologian as highly significant.

Let's look at some established lore events.

The Exodus of Colonial Sharlayan: If the Sharlayans have the ability to foresee the future, then the decision to abandon the colony was undoubtedly a result of seeing the encroaching doom of Eorzea.

Viewing this through the first perspective utterly destroys the integrity of the character of Louisoix. Prior to the Astrologian Class, Louisoix was presented to us as an idealistic, benevolent figure who strove to avert a massive catastrophe, but failed. However, a man of his years, of his experience, and from Sharlayan, would have to know, under this perspective, that the Astrologians are NEVER WRONG. So, knowing this, he chose to put the lives and careers of those nearest and dearest to him in jeopardy for... what? He knows he can't change what is to come. The Astrologians saw the Calamity, he can't stop it. Why try? He's a Sharlayan, an academic, a scholar, a scientist. 1+1=2. You can't make it add up to 3 no matter how much you WANT it to, or TRY to make it.

Viewing this through the second perspective, the Astrologians foresaw the destruction of Eorzea and/or Garlemald conquering Eorzea. Except... neither happened. So... why did they abandon the colony? Because they chose to put their faith in Astrologians? But if this is the standard of Astrologian Foresight, that it is fallible, why put any stock into it at all? Why would it be just a significant aspect of the job's lore?

The Isle of Val: As anyone who has completed the MSQ up to 2.5 knows, the Isle of Val, which was the home of the Students of Baldesion, a Sharlayan institution, was wiped off the face of the world with only -1- survivor.

Looking at this through the first perspective, we must ask why this was allowed to happen. The Astrologians would KNOW Val was doomed, along with everyone on it. They spared the Colony the Seventh Calamity, but decided to cut loose the Students of Baldesion? Did the Students of Baldesion have not even -1- Astrologian among their ranks? Did they decide to IGNORE what was going to happen?

Looking at this through the second perspective, we have to ask if the Astrologians even saw it in the stars to begin with. If they didn't, then why is this fortune-telling aspect of Astromancy so emphasized?

Final Thoughts: As far as the story goes, I do believe there is a place for a Fortune-Teller Class that attempts to divine the future, but I cannot validate it as part of a nation like Sharlayan, which should, "Know Better." The only way this can be validated as presented is if its some kind of fool-proof, 100% accurate art. As we see, that damages the integrity of the existing lore, and will call into question everything that happens in the future. If this process of seeing the future in the stars is NOT accurate, however, then why would the Sharlayans give any tangible measure of accreditation to it? It should be an idle curiosity at best, a topic of scorn at worst.

Why is this part of a Class from a nation of Scholars, Academics, Scientists, and Mages? Being able to, 'See the Future,' is a difficult enough variable to add to a narrative without putting it into a culture that would reject the notion.

[Cilia]

While I've only done the basics of AST myself, the way I interpret the class is that the Astrologian is capable of foreseeing all futures and the probability of a given future coming to pass. While they can foresee all futures, whether a given future becomes the future is up in the air. (Like Alexander they can foresee all possibilities, but lack his "range" of sight and power to observe the one they want.) So the Sharlayan Astrologians don't know what is going to happen, but what what is likely to happen and base their decisions on that.

It is an accurate, but not precise, art.

Considering history is more or less immutable from Mide and Dayan being spat out in the past up until Alexander's defeat, though... it's kind of a moot point.

[Vexander]

Thank you for the response, but that does just kind of prove the point a bit. We know, at the least, due to Alexander, that History is immutable up until Alexander's defeat at the least. So... how can there have been possible other futures for Astrologians to see? They'd not be possible. Alexander makes them impossible.

So either the Sharlayans knew what was going on and made bad choices, or Astrology is not a very good tool to determine futures events on due to a lack of precision and accuracy, and shouldn't have the kind of importance it does to the class lorewise as it seems to, from the class quests. But, the class quests DO put a strong emphasis on this whole, seeing the future bit. It is how you're directly introduced to the Class to begin with. The last Astrologian to hold the soul crystal you receive foresaw you getting it, and that was the whole premise behind them even making the trip of Eorzea to begin with. They just went back home immediately after you got the crystal.

[Konungarike]

As far as I gathered, AST seems more about giving people the knowledge and support to make their desired fate a reality. The future is not a thing set in stone, but that any number of things is possible in the future and AST helps the "desirable" one more likely to occur through their abilities. Like a Cause -> Effect thing, where they interpret the stars for clues to an Effect, and then try to enable the Cause.

That's just the way I've thought about it though. Take any lore scholar's word before mine.

[Vexander]

Well, any thoughts are appreciated. I know a lot of my concern or issue is based in assumptions of Sharlayan since we have few hard facts about them. I've tried to devise a perspective on Sharlayan from what little we know. There is probably a lot more that hasn't been elaborated on that might make it more logical, but right now, the whole Fortune-Teller aspect to Astrologian strikes me as distinctly Anti-Sharlayan, but its directly -from- the Sharlayan School of Astrology as opposed to the Ishgardian School of Astrology.

[RobinMalvin]

As stated by Cilia, astrologian's fortune telling is not outright prophecy. As Leveva puts it, the fate is all written in the stars. How one reads and understands the message however, depends on the individual; one reading can be different than the others. At times, the reading isn't what most people will accept as good. Astrologian will not deny and try to change this outcome, as trying to change one's fate may only result in more disaster to the person. They can however, give advice to the person on how to face the fate and to make the best of what is given so they can finally attain their desirable and good fate.

But again, fortune telling is just that, fortune telling. A mistake or failure in reading the stars is not avoidable even among the best of astrologians. What happened to Isle of Val might be an example of how reading fate is not something as easy as flipping your palm. With the students were busy researching Ascians might also contribute to their downfall; so ingrained they were in their research they might not bother to scry their own fate.

As for the exodus, it's more about the Forum than the astrologians. The Forum and majority of Sharlayans hold the idea that they should not intervere in major world's affair, preferring to watch events unfold from a researcher's viewpoint. Astrologian's reading can just be used to justify this action; whether the outcome is true to the reading or not, they can use the data to improve astromancy and the best data can only be gained if the source is not intervened in any way. The fact that there's a faction of astrologians among the Forum can be more a reason.

[Vexander]

I guess my question then is, if the Astrologian Fortune-Telling is not accurate to a degree where it could be relied on, why do the Sharlayans bother with it at all. Using the power of the Stars/Space/Time for healing/offensive/protective magic seems well within their purview, but Fortune-Telling by an unreliable method?

[Anonymoose]

This seems to be approaching the gray between concrete, cite-able lore and acknowledgement of the fact that the game is using real-world themes as inspiration. In such a case, lore-wise, you can really only fall back on trying to understand the philosophies of the Sharlayans themselves. If something is indeed a science, you don't give up on it just because it's unreliable; especially if it's ingrained into your culture. You work with what you've got and make progress where you can. It's just a very long frontier.

In the real-world, we can scientifically show that many facets of the occult have no demonstrable validation of their own claims. But imagine if the opposite happened. We wouldn't give up on astrology any faster than we'd give up on psychology - another "soft science" that isn't always predictive or exact enough for some to respect. Hells, physics is one of the hardest sciences there is and you can't just walk up and ask where a feather's going to land if you drop it off of a skyscraper (without consuming some serious resources and still ending up with a margin of error).

tl;dr My meteorologist ain't all that reliable either, but I keep him around.

[PArcher]

Another thing to consider is no one knows Alexander knows the exact path time is going to move on (up to a point) except Alexander, Mide and Dayan; no one knows that the future (to a point) is written in stone at all. To everyone, its mutable, the fate may be written, but we have the power to (try to) change it if we want.

Astrologians can "see" multiple, different paths; some right, some wrong, and try to find the "correct" path and move along it (whether it is really the best path is up for discussion). Sometimes that path they take they just ride along (do nothing), others they try to change it.

Basically...they don't actually know they can't do anything about the future. They can see that they can somewhat accurately predict it, or even change it (even though they really aren't) and so they continue to put resources and time into Astromancy.

And then there is that point beyond which the future is unwritten...perhaps their craft will only be strengthened by the new fate, or maybe it will fall apart completely (well, since AST is a job it won't, but still, food for thought)

[Cilia]

The thing about dealing in possibilities is... it's hard. Like, real hard.

Let's say that, hypothetically, Alexander's temporal loop(s) makes everything that happens within it static. Nothing can change. The possibility of another future still exists; his actions simply reduced the probability of those other futures to 0%. Since Astrologian fortune-telling can only tell you what is most probable, given divining every possibility is borderline impossible, they only know the future that is most likely to happen - the one set in stone by Alexander's time loops. Even then, Astrologian fortune-telling can't predict the exact future - just give you a vague idea of what may happen.

We're beyond Alexander's time loops now, so it's no longer an issue anyway.

Why is it a Sharlayan art when they follow scientific methods? Well... it may not be precise, but it is accurate. It'll give you a general idea but not tell you exactly what is going to happen or when - it can tell you something like "Badness is coming soon," but not "The Isle of Val is going to be annihilated by the Ascians using a spell akin to Ultima on X day Y year," for instance.