It's possible that the trigger may, in fact, be Ilberd. I think that'd actually be pretty interesting - for the current status quo to be shaken up and for the Warrior of Light/Scions to have to do damage control to prevent a heavy handed retaliation on the part of Garlemald itself. If Zenos is a bad apple - which is pretty much confirmed at this point - then he'll likely be causing all sorts of problems too, not only for Eorzeans but his own people given that he presumably doesn't indulge in the core ideals that Garlemald was founded on.
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