Game population by the numbers.

[NefarioCall]

I read in a different post that roughly 600,000k people purchased FFXIV, and that less than 30k now remain. For the purposes of this topic, i will consider those numbers as fairly accurate.

I understand that a few angry players will have by now thrown their copy of the game into the trash and vowed never to come back, however i will argue that those people were also most likely to quit no matter how good the game was at launch. I back this up by pointing out they would not have been willing to consider the game would eventually be good. Take for example the 'crowd' that waits for a new franchise product to come out hoping it will be bad so they can flame it. Or lets say, Boston Red Sox fans jeering at the Yankees, but only when the Yankees lose. Or perhaps Red Sox fans who jeer at the Red Sox at every loss.

Okay, enough of that.

The rest still own the game and have accounts. In fact, by the fortune of free play, they can, simply choose at any time to give it another try without even thinking about payments. Has anyone else noticed that every time there is a new patch, or every now and then, the 'Is this game worth playing yet' topics come up?

Is it fair to argue that Final Fantasy is a console brand. That the PS3 sales were, prior to the PC launch, expected to be bigger than the PC sales.

How about the obscene system requirements to play this game at max settings with 30FPS or better in all areas. Does it seem ludicrous, or perhaps hopeful that 600,000 people somehow managed to purchase this game despite that at launch?

Given that FFXI reached about 500,000 at peak, do you think this game will ever better that total. Can it achieve 1 Billion? Of course game quality comes into play on this, but i am quite certain SE will die before they leave this game unfinished. We don't know what kind of quality this game will achieve, but we know that it will eventually reach a state of ridiculously more than it is now.

There are plenty of topics about content and will people come back yadda yadda.
I am discussing numbers. What do you think is realistic? What trends have you noticed with the game so far? What about other MMOs?

I personally believe this game will easily surpass 500,000, but not until sometime next year.

[Abriael]

1 billion? I hope that's a typo lol.

I wouldn't call the system requirements "obscene" by the way. They are pretty much in line with the fact that it has the most detailed graphics in the market (even for the foreseeable future).
I, and I'm sure, quite a few others, am quite happy that there is ONE MMO in the market that actually uses the power of the gaming PC I invested with, instead of having absolutely crappy graphics in order to run on every soccer mom's laptop.

As a final note. I would like to make you aware of the fact that the "30000" figures are entirely arbitrary, based on empyrical ways of gathering data with absolutely no statistical value. The population dropped, and that's a given, but we don't know any numbers that have any solid base. So speculating on them is pretty much like speculating game sales data based on VGcharts. Scratch that, actually on much worse methods than VGchartz (that uses an at least slightly statistically viable method to pull their numbers out of their rear).

[Nephera]

They need to really sell it when they do the ps3 release.

[TonyMontana]

Sometime I feel like I will be the only person left playing with mouse and keyboard.

[Abriael]

Sometime I feel like I will be the only person left playing with mouse and keyboard.

I actually play with joypad/keyboard. While a quite peculiar combination, a joypad compensate the inherent weaknesses of keyboard (mostly related to the lack of analogic controls).

[Shelia]

The only reason I stuck with XIV is because it's free until people are "satisfied", and I want to see how long it takes to improve. Really. To be entirely honest, unless SE gets their butts in gear I'm going to completely drop XIV for Guild Wars 2 once it's released. Now that's a game that looks quality.

I'm very, very disappointed in SE as far as development goes. I've been playing XIV since Alpha last February... and I can tell you right now, this game hasn't made much progress past Beta 1. All the things they are implementing now should have been in the beta phases... not after release. I honestly think it is completely asinine of SE to release XIV in the state it was and not expect negative backlash. The game had no content whatsoever aside from the main storyline and leves at launch. That was it. Nothing else. For being a next-gen MMO, XIV is by far one of the least impressive MMO's I've seen content-wise.

Now, granted... XI and WoW have had a lot of time to develop over the years which is why they have so much more content... but not even XI was this bad at release. I at least had fun with vanilla XI. When I bought XIV I was thoroughly disappointed. I felt like I just paid $50 to continue playing the beta.

Overall, I just think SE rushed the hell out of XIV. If they took an extra 6 months of development and actually listened to feedback, we might not be having this problem.


As far as player numbers go...
I hate to sound like a pessimist, but after Guild Wars 2 and the new Star Wars MMO comes out FFXIV doesn't stand a chance. I think FFXIV's numbers will continue to bomb unless they really pull something amazing off or they keep the game free to play forever (in which case I'd be more than happy to keep playing it).

[Abriael]

Now, granted... XI and WoW have had a lot of time to develop over the years which is why they have so much more content... but not even XI was this bad at release.

Actually XI was in a very, very bad state when it released in Japan. Pretty much comparable to the state in which XIV was released.

I'm actually quite amused about people continually flaunting Guild Wars 2. Nothing solid is known about the game, and people are basing their perspectives about it's quality at release on blind faith alone. And considering NCsoft's track record, that's quite a leap of faith.

[Xatsh]

It depends on how well they improve the game.

If they truly want the mainstream crowd they have to beat Rift, GW2, WoW, Tera, and SWToR or they do not stand a prayer at least in the west. If they want to target FF players and make a game that is more nitch they will be avoiding direct competition.

Personally I do not think they stand a chance at mainstream, the game has failed in the mainstream.. even if Yoshi makes the game perfect and the best mmo to date it will never be a huge success the game is a 4.0/10 no matter how much better it gets. Even with a 9.5/10 PS3 score it will still be viewed as the worst game ever made by the majority of mainstream PC players.

I think the game will survive fine, but I would predict it capping at around 400-600k subs with a flawless PS3 launch. The more they mainstream the game and get into direct competition I fear the worse the sub-count will be. Their only chance of success lies in the FF fans, they have already failed with mmo fans.

[Punxsutawney]

Where does everyone get that FF11 peaked at 500k? Is that a # SE gave because I thought it was closer to 800,000 back in 04-06? Anywho, FF11's population matters not, what matters is this: this game has potential and SE is trying to make improvements and make it better. If you build a game that people can enjoy, you will retain your subscribers and even increase your subscriber numbers, it's not rocket science. All SE has to do is listen to the players and make the needed improvements, then they will have their current subscribers telling their friends, that had quit, that the game is awesome now, and bam! you have your 400-700k players again. Sure there will be those few who have found something else, either a new game or move on from gaming all together that will never come back. But as the movie says, "if you build it, they will come." If SE makes FF14 into as great game, players will come.

And a quick word of warning to shiela, Star Wars and GW2 will not kill FF14, sorry to inform you. Guild Wars will fail becauses it's a crappy instanced MMO (instanced MMOs are lame and boring and no one will deny it) and Star wars will fail just like the last so called "WOW Killer" they made. Neither of those companys has what it take to kill off FF, let alone Warcraft.... Last I read, RIFT was going to kill off wow and all the mmos, and it just didn't happen. You will always have those that stay true to their game, and fortunately fo FF, they have the fan #s.

[Shelia]

I'm actually quite amused about people continually flaunting Guild Wars 2. Nothing solid is known about the game, and people are basing their perspectives about it's quality at release on blind faith alone. And considering NCsoft's track record, that's quite a leap of faith.

UM sorry to sound like kind of an antagonist... but have you been living under a rock for the past 6 months?! lmfao

ArenaNet has released TONS of info within the past couple of weeks, and they continue to stay in touch with their player base and take feedback.

Here's some recommended reading for you:

http://thevulcanoids.enjin.com/forum...ilation-thread

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Guild_Wars_2

http://www.arena.net/blog/andrew-mcl...rafting-in-gw2

http://www.arena.net/blog/pax-east-p...tion#more-4739

http://www.arena.net/blog/norn-week-...ents#more-4524


and that's just stuff I whipped up within 2 mins.

Do some research next time, thx.