I have failed a 7% meld with crafts v close to 40-50 times now. 7% is roughly 1 in 14 or so, so it would be reasonable to think it would happen within the 40, right? Well, the odds of failing a 7% meld 50 times in a row are roughly 2%, which actually isn't all that impossible. The odds of failing that 60% rate 8 times in a row are 0.065% or so. That's still higher than the odds of winning the jumbo cactpot with a single ticket (0.01%, 1 in 10,000).

Probability is both comforting and frustrating at the same time, as you can see.