Nope, it DOES mean there are more players active ingame.
I'm well aware of the fact that lots of players do not use FFXIVpad (I don't use it either), but a rise in numbers of people active on pad can only have two meanings:
1. There are more active players in general, even though just a tiny number is using FFXIVpad.
2. FFXIVpad is becoming more famous with the people already playing.
Now I won't say the second reason is not true, but it's not explaining the strong rise in visitors since July 2011 (Remember? The time when patch 1.18 hit FFXIV..) while the number of visitors has been stable before.
Since 1.18 there has been an increase in player numbers, and that's a fact.
How many exactly though is a question FFXIVpads can't answer either.


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