Crafting is not random

[tymora]

My 2 cents...

Moon phase and Weather
(Yea I find it easier when the moon is bigger, half/full moon etc., while weather should have some effects on the stability of elements as well, I'm still trying to figure it out)

Actually I don't. Streaks of 2-3 botches are pretty common regardless of what is happening around me. It is pretty random here, but the fun (and frustration) is in how to handle the randomness.

Guild Buff
(It certainly helps even when it's not a requirement from synths)

Can usually skip it when you are 3 or less under recipe unless your equipment is past expiry. Helps to avoid traveling half the world to get support when I don't need it.
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I use Preserve (L10) > Fulfillment (L10) > Maker's Muse (L10) > Ingenuity (L30?) in that order.
Tendertouch (L10) is also pretty nice but I swapped it out once I got better alternatives.
-> Hence get all the L10 skills and find a combination that suits your (spamming) style.

I use 2 x Recipe Level as an estimate for the craftsmanship (or magic) I need for best successful action rates. Once you have that, put any extra into control for stability.
-> It should help.
-> Using the right tool makes it easier to hit the required craftsmanship value.

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Finally adjust your own expectations.
Synths can and will fail. Materials are cheap. The world isn't gonna collapse if you only get 75% success.
The game doesn't have to change to suit you.

If you just can't handle randomness, don't play poker, don't roll dices, don't walk down the street (random chance of a car swerving off the street to kill you), don't drive a car (random chance of a drunk driver hitting you), don't eat (random chance of choking to death), don't breath (random chance of someone smoking walking by you and giving you cancer) and don't live (random chance of death at every turn).