Crafting is not random

[lackofwords]

There are certain aspects of crafting that is random, and others which you can have control over.
Such as look at the EXP earned for completing the craft for the mahogany lumber in the OP; 759~764. You have no control over that. You can find your own examples as well when completing any craft to compare EXP results, sometimes the variance is much larger than 5xp for completed synths.

You do have control over the success rate depending on the tools, stats, and choices you make during the synth. This should be indisputable. Such as if you keep spamming standard synth your chances of failing a synth out of your level range is higher oppose to carefully picking your choices and observing the changes.

I personally take the easier route and earn 300 EXP per synth by just mashing Standard Synth rather than spend twice the amount of time and actions to carefully monitor color, sound, and my available choices at the moment. It was fun to do the first few synths to see if it's possible, but now I just spend that time multitasking something else while just hitting the enter button occasionally.

[tymora]

I personally take the easier route and earn 300 EXP per synth

I still watch my TV mashing the standard for 600+ EXP synth. A few more failures but no big deal.

[syntaxlies]

by the way i did the average for the op and he averages 625 xp a synth which i can get np without fails.
so if you aim for 625 instead of 750 youll prob have better luck and save some mats.

[WillRiker]

I am more curious about what they are saying about orb sounds. The only orb sounds i hear are after I select an action. But, they seem to be indicating that you can hear sounds before an action, and know when you are running a risk of failing/going unstable.

I was hoping they could elaborate on that.