There Is No Dancer (yet)

[Dorander]

Have seen people make this claim a few times, but I've never seen it. Do you have any examples? I am not trying to argue, I am legit curious about what examples there are.

The most recent example I can give is with Palace of the Dead. So much hype when it was announced. Then when it was released, thread after thread of: "I'm disappointed in it.." "Not what I wanted it to be.." "To much RNG.." "It's so bad I was hoping this would give me a reason to keep my sub.."

I honestly see the same thing happening here. People flaming the forums about "Dancer was confirmed! Why didn't we get it? That girl was obviously a dancer! Screw S.E. I quit!" ect ect ect..

[Kaurie]

The most recent example I can give is with Palace of the Dead. So much hype when it was announced. Then when it was released, thread after thread of: "I'm disappointed in it.." "Not what I wanted it to be.." "To much RNG.." "It's so bad I was hoping this would give me a reason to keep my sub.."

I honestly see the same thing happening here. People flaming the forums about "Dancer was confirmed! Why didn't we get it? That girl was obviously a dancer! Screw S.E. I quit!" ect ect ect..

People listing their disappointment in released content is not the same thing as making wild claims that the Development team promised something and did not deliver. I did not see anyone suggest in the PotD complaint threads (which are all very valid criticisms) make such a claim.

[Lyshell]

While I do agree that there are plenty of people who indeed not simply being contrarian; pointing out holes in some facets of the speculation and raising very valid counterpoints for "Just a Monk", I feel like there are plenty of those who are being pretty vindictive in trying to shut down any speculation otherwise.

And really those are the ones I was talking about there are the ones that kind of want to squash dreams. I mean what topic is on the first page of this forum? "There Is No Dancer" Not "Dancer is Confirmed", a whole topic to say NO to Dancer. I mean really? We can't even speculate?

[ZhaneX]

And really those are the ones I was talking about there are the ones that kind of want to squash dreams. I mean what topic is on the first page of this forum? "There Is No Dancer" Not "Dancer is Confirmed", a whole topic to say NO to Dancer. I mean really? We can't even speculate?

To be fair, the title is "There Is No Dancer (yet)".

It's not like the OP was saying there will never be a Dancer, just that they don't think there's any evidence really hinting at them yet. Whether you disagree with that or not, I wouldn't say that they're out to "Squash Dreams". This might not go for everyone against the speculation, but as far as the original intent of this thread goes...

[Balipu]

I feel this is an exaggeration. There is ample evidence to suggest a Dancer, while not enough to confirm it. It's a perfect amount to create speculation. See my post on page 10 of this thread, http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...8yet%29/page10

Also, note that the evidence points toward her being a Pugilist, not a Monk.

Well her glowing chakra and her sparring with a confirmed monk in the land where monks come from is a pretty good indication that she isn't just a Pugilist.

Now look at your points:

For Dancer
A solid 10% of the video focuses on her dancing. This is a pretty significant chunk of time that alludes to a dancer only for Square to back out and say "Got you!"
You mean the warm up excercise that she did before the fight? It can be seen as a dance but we can't rule out that those are just martial arts practice moves. The two don't look that diffferent.
Her movements are clearly more fluid than his (which are quite rigid)
Different martial arts styles maybe? The game has three forms anyway. Or maybe she outclasses the WoL as a monk. Raubahn also does stuff that we can never even dream about as gladiators. Or maybe she is a woman who will obviously not fight the same way as a buff guy.
During the video she uses her feet more and moves around more, while he remains more stationary and punches more
See above.
She has a hidden dagger-type weapon, which is focused on key artwork here and here. While it is possible for a Monk to use this weapon, it's hardly iconic of the Monk job - so why make it such a focus in the artwork?
It isn't an iconic dancer weapon either, so what's your point? The WoL doesn't even have a weapon in the video, which is impossible in the game. Yet he is confirmed to be a monk.
The expansion artwork appears to show 1 of each job in the game (Mind you I've only been able to identify BRD, PLD, DRK, MNK, DRG, NIN only, but have counted 16 jobs - current 13+3. I also suspect that bird above may be Garuda-Egi). Monk is clearly to the ladies right, which either means they have 2 Monks in the image with 1 of every other job (and we're getting 2 new ones), or she is a separate job and we are getting 3 new ones. (or I miscounted?). Also on that note, I see GLD, DRK and two other sword wielding jobs - which suggests the SAM/RDM that we are all expecting.
Way too many "maybe"s. Also, don't read too much into the artwork. We tried that when Heavensward was announced and it didn't really lead to anything.
The Rangers in the summer were said to be "hints" of upcoming jobs. I am not sure on this, but I read somewhere someone said that the Yellow Ranger pose is identical to a Dancer pose in FFXI?
I also read that, but others claim that it only hinted the number of jobs. And I can't find a legit source for either.

Sorry but these points are just grasping at straws. Occam's razor says that we should go with the explanation with the least ammount of assumptions. Dancer only has assumptions, while Monk requires neither.

[Lyshell]

Yeah you're right I shouldn't throw OP under the bus like that because his opinion left room for speculation so sorry. :P However same could not be said for A LOT of the commenters on here.

[Dorander]

People listing their disappointment in released content is not the same thing as making wild claims that the Development team promised something and did not deliver. I did not see anyone suggest in the PotD complaint threads (which are all very valid criticisms) make such a claim.

Ok, another example: Housing. Dev team said personal housing would be affordable. It wasn't and people raged. The Dev team has said egi glamours since 3.3, now they are claiming 3.5. The flames of that flair up every so often. The Dev team said something about FC primals, that went down the drain. People raged. need more?

[Kaurie]

Well her glowing chakra and her sparring with a confirmed monk in the land where monks come from is a pretty good indication that she isn't just a Pugilist.

Now look at your points:

For Dancer
A solid 10% of the video focuses on her dancing. This is a pretty significant chunk of time that alludes to a dancer only for Square to back out and say "Got you!"
You mean the warm up excercise that she did before the fight? It can be seen as a dance but we can't rule out that those are just martial arts practice moves. The two don't look that diffferent.
Her movements are clearly more fluid than his (which are quite rigid)
Different martial arts styles maybe? The game has three forms anyway. Or maybe she outclasses the WoL as a monk. Raubahn also does stuff that we can never even dream about as gladiators. Or maybe she is a woman who will obviously not fight the same way as a buff guy.
During the video she uses her feet more and moves around more, while he remains more stationary and punches more
See above.
She has a hidden dagger-type weapon, which is focused on key artwork here and here. While it is possible for a Monk to use this weapon, it's hardly iconic of the Monk job - so why make it such a focus in the artwork?
It isn't an iconic dancer weapon either, so what's your point? The WoL doesn't even have a weapon in the video, which is impossible in the game. Yet he is confirmed to be a monk.
The expansion artwork appears to show 1 of each job in the game (Mind you I've only been able to identify BRD, PLD, DRK, MNK, DRG, NIN only, but have counted 16 jobs - current 13+3. I also suspect that bird above may be Garuda-Egi). Monk is clearly to the ladies right, which either means they have 2 Monks in the image with 1 of every other job (and we're getting 2 new ones), or she is a separate job and we are getting 3 new ones. (or I miscounted?). Also on that note, I see GLD, DRK and two other sword wielding jobs - which suggests the SAM/RDM that we are all expecting.
Way too many "maybe"s. Also, don't read too much into the artwork. We tried that when Heavensward was announced and it didn't really lead to anything.
The Rangers in the summer were said to be "hints" of upcoming jobs. I am not sure on this, but I read somewhere someone said that the Yellow Ranger pose is identical to a Dancer pose in FFXI?
I also read that, but others claim that it only hinted the number of jobs. And I can't find a legit source for either.

Sorry but these points are just grasping at straws. Occam's razor says that we should go with the explanation with the least ammount of assumptions. Dancer only has assumptions, while Monk requires neither.

Again, appreciate the breakdown argument back, same as Reynhart. It boils down to the same thing, that we don't have enough information to say anything concrete. It's the perfect amount of information to promote speculation.

In terms of the weapon, my point is that it is a focal part of the art work which makes zero sense for a job that has a different weapon as their icon. We have no idea what the Dancer would use as a weapon in FFXIV, so that point is moot.

For the Chakra, I am not entirely sure where or what that looks like. My monk is still leveling and while I've used Chakra going through PotD, the animations I have seen in that I do not see in the video at all. Would you mind pointing out which they are?

It is funny, because you state that Monk requires no assumptions, but you actually started out your entire post with an assumption - "where monks come from is a pretty good indication that she isn't just a Pugilist."

I really dislike your last statement. Occam's razor is a problem solving technique from the 14th century, where we're trying to solve problems out in the real world. It's not meant to be used when analyzing a trailer that is designed to create hype and speculation. It doesn't fit in with this at all. "Grasping at straws" is just an ad hominem.

All of that said, I am perfectly in tune with her being a Monk and that the artwork is just artwork and there is nothing for it. However, I find it fun to speculate the other possibilities. We have months before the expansion hits, now is the fun time when we get to guess and speculate - no matter how radical that they may be

Your counter points also included a lot of maybes btw

[Kaurie]

Ok, another example: Housing. Dev team said personal housing would be affordable. It wasn't and people raged. The Dev team has said egi glamours since 3.3, now they are claiming 3.5. The flames of that flair up every so often. The Dev team said something about FC primals, that went down the drain. People raged. need more?

Um now you are completely changing the argument.

First you said that people will assume things and then assume that the Dev promised them even though they didn't, and then rage when those promises aren't kept. Your example was of people doing something completely different. Now your second set of examples is of the devs actually breaking their promises?

[KaitlanKela]

There's not enough evidence to say with 100% certainty one way or another.

However, after reading most of this thread, it seems that the concrete evidence points toward monk, making it far more likely. It's fair and not malicious in any way for people to point out that in all likelihood it's not a dancer so just beware you're setting yourself up for a letdown. People are gonna get hyped anyway, so please carry on, it's just not very likely that it will pan out.

I'd like to point out again that they don't reveal jobs at the NA fanfest. If it was a dancer it's a pretty obvious reveal to have the teaser trailer centered on one. From a production/marketing standpoint that's unprecedented and a pretty bad strategy (reduces demand for later fanfests by essentially releasing the product early, that econ minor again). I don't see the devs at SE being that stupid.