Some thoughts on Gold Saucer that perplex me.

[Gemina]

I'm sure this has been brought up before. I am also still fairly a newer player having only been around for about six months now. I was going to post this in the GS forum, but it seems pretty dead so will post here.

The first thing that confuses me is how MGP is rewarded if taking odds/difficulty into account.

Example 1: Mini Cactpot gives 10k MGP for rolling a 6, which only one combination of numbers will get (1,2,3). However, rolling a 24, also only one combination (7,8,9) only gives 3.6k MGP. The odds for these are the EXACT same, so W...T...F???

Example 2: The event 'Any Way The Wind Blows" is completely and totally luck. The sequence of knockback AoE is entirely random. You actually have less odds of completing this than both the 6 and 24 roles from mini cactpot, yet this gives 7500 MGP.

I don't have to be a mathematician to know that sh*t just don't add up here. Don't even let me bring up jumbo cactpot. I'll leave that for another time.

edit: some things I have considered after posting:

1. mini cactpot is a drawing card, and sometimes the number combinations for 6 and 24 are not always possible.

2. Unlike mini cactpot where the maximum reward isn't always possible, AWTWB can always be won if you're standing in the right spot.

I may have answered my own questions lol.

[Zomkei]

[snip]...Example 1: Mini Cactpot gives 10k MGP for rolling a 6, which only one combination of numbers will get (1,2,3). However, rolling a 24, also only one combination (7,8,9) only gives 3.6k MGP. The odds for these are the EXACT same, so W...T...F???

Er... it's gambling. No matter the chances every number has the same possibilities, with different rewards. Just like dice rolling. There's no "logical" or "mathematical" (whatever you wanna call it) explanation.

[snip]...Example 2: The event 'Any Way The Wind Blows" is completely and totally luck. The sequence of knockback AoE is entirely random. You actually have less odds of completing this than both the 6 and 24 roles from mini cactpot, yet this gives 7500 MGP.

While you do have less odds, you have more chances at this per day than with mini cactpot. It has a chance of spawning on every XX:45, so it is worth less. Also, just want to point out its impossible to "always" get it, regardless of where you stand. No matter what, Typhon can hit EVERY section of the arena, just some spots have less chances of being targeted, as others have multiple different types of targets. (The 4 spots everyone goes to can get hit with the cone AOE and Typhon cycles through 4 AOE spots in those exact location people go to.)

[Fynlar]

Example 1: Mini Cactpot gives 10k MGP for rolling a 6, which only one combination of numbers will get (1,2,3). However, rolling a 24, also only one combination (7,8,9) only gives 3.6k MGP. The odds for these are the EXACT same, so W...T...F???

I take it you've never seen a craps table, huh?

Just because the odds of two things happening are the same doesn't mean they have to give the same payouts. The Field bet will pay different amounts for rolling a 2 or a 12 even though the odds of both are exactly the same (double 1s or double 6s).

[Loony_BoB]

Example 2: The event 'Any Way The Wind Blows" is completely and totally luck. The sequence of knockback AoE is entirely random. You actually have less odds of completing this than both the 6 and 24 roles from mini cactpot, yet this gives 7500 MGP.

Doesn't really matter to me.

To me...

[Vidu]

The rewards from the GATEs (including "Any Way The Wind Blows") have been buffed by quite a bit over the past few patches. Also the Gold Saucer ist meant as a Casino/amusment park thing. Its gamble, its luck and not really there to be just another grind (even though people seem to have this urge to turn everything into a grind... *sigh*)

[LineageRazor]

Real casinos are not under any obligation to make internally consistent payouts based on odds of success, and neither are imaginary ones like the Gold Saucer.

One thing to consider, though, in regards to the Mini Cactpot... Because 1, 2, 3 is a better payout, if you flip up a 1, 2, or 3, chances are you're going to try to complete the set, even if there's a 7, 8, or 9 on the board. Coming CLOSE, but not quite getting it has much lower payouts than coming close to completing 7, 8, 9. The best rewards for coming close to 1, 2, 3 are worth 720 and 360 MGP, whereas the best rewards for coming close to 7, 8, 9 are worth 1800 - and there's three such rewards, instead of just two.

[Greedalox]

Example 1: Mini Cactpot gives 10k MGP for rolling a 6, which only one combination of numbers will get (1,2,3). However, rolling a 24, also only one combination (7,8,9) only gives 3.6k MGP. The odds for these are the EXACT same, so W...T...F???

The best example I can give is Yahtzee. Y'know, the game where you squeal Yahtzee! for rolling 5 dice with the same number?
The funny thing about it is that you have the same chance to roll a 1-2-4-6-6 as you do to roll 4-4-4-4-4. Even though the odds are the same, it doesn't make a Yahtzee less valuable or a scramble of numbers more valuable.

[Niwashi]

Mini Cactpot gives 10k MGP for rolling a 6, which only one combination of numbers will get (1,2,3). However, rolling a 24, also only one combination (7,8,9) only gives 3.6k MGP. The odds for these are the EXACT same, so W...T...F???

The odds would be the same if you were choosing blindly. But it's not a blind choice. You get partial information and have to weigh the different payouts against the remaining chances.

For instance, say once you've selected the slots to reveal, one line has a 1 and two unknowns while another line has a 7, an 8, and one unknown, while 2, 3, and 9 are still unaccounted for. Do you go for the chance at a bigger payout hoping that two of those unknowns will have what you want, or the more likely payout where you only need one of them to be what you want?

And the choice also needs to take into account what else you'd be likely to get if it's not your hoped-for total, since, as LineageRazor pointed out, there are more decently good results from getting close to the 24 than there are close to the 6. Having different payouts just gives you something extra to consider when making your choice.

[Alberel]

Example 2: The event 'Any Way The Wind Blows" is completely and totally luck. The sequence of knockback AoE is entirely random. You actually have less odds of completing this than both the 6 and 24 roles from mini cactpot, yet this gives 7500 MGP.

FYI that GATE isn't entirely down to luck. Whether you ultimately last all five rounds is RNG dependent, yes, but there are certain positions that give you better odds due to some of his moves being unable to ever hit there.

[Pells]

For instance, say once you've selected the slots to reveal, one line has a 1 and two unknowns while another line has a 7, an 8, and one unknown, while 2, 3, and 9 are still unaccounted for. Do you go for the chance at a bigger payout hoping that two of those unknowns will have what you want, or the more likely payout where you only need one of them to be what you want?

That would depend on the relative payout and odds of the two possibilities.
1-2-3 in your example would be a 1 in 10 chance. With a payout of 10,000 gil.
7-8-9 in your example would be a 1 in 5 chance -- twice as likely, but the payout is only 3,600 gil.

Getting 3,600 twice is still less than getting 10,000 once. Since the payout on the six-sum is so much bigger than all the others, it's always the best choice to go for, unless it's been eliminated as a possibility.