The Griffin

[Cilia]

The Ivy was briefly brought up; it was noted the remnants of her spy network was operating in Ishgard and was responsible for supplying the beast tribes (and the Masks) with the crystals for the summonings of 3.4. We have no news on the Ivy herself; she is rotting in Ul'dahn prison somewhere until we get word otherwise. I don't consider her a suspect because of the whole "rotting in Ul'dahn prison" bit, though it is a possibility. She could also be personally involved, but again, rotting in Ul'dahn prison.

Gaius is only a suspect because of anecdotal evidence. I don't consider him likely to be the Griffin's true identity because he was stuck in the exploding Praetorium; we may not have a body tied to the bumper of our manacutters, but it's reasonably safe to say he is dead. He's only mentioned by the False Griffin in reference to the new legate / viceroy of Ala Mhigo and how he's much worse than Gaius was. (Gaius, despite his shortcomings, was still probably the closest thing to a progressive Garlean possible outside of expatriates.) Gaius is a possibility, but I don't even consider him a plausible culprit (or it's barely plausible, requiring "fill in the blank" answers like "How did he survive the Praetorium?", "Why is he trying to stir up the Ala Mhigans to retake their home?" etc).

With Ilberd there are no such unanswered questions, and the Griffin's MO fits his circumstances when you analyze it a bit. Elidibus' description of the Griffin's character when handing over the Eyes also fits quite well.

Even so, we cannot rule out the possibility that it's another Ala Mhigan refugee, possibly one we already know as was the case with the False Griffin or possibly one we do not. There is also the possibility that the Griffin is merely paying lip service to the cause, though given the way he conducts himself and is willing to do anything to liberate Ala Mhigo, even use Nidhogg's damned Eyes to some unknown end, I don't think that's very likely. (Strictly speaking the Griffin isn't even necessarily Ala Mhigan, though his skin tone does suggest that he is.)

[Frederick22]

Why Gaius would trust on another ascian again after last time?

[Geist]

Why Gaius would trust on another ascian again after last time?

That's perhaps the best objection we can come up alongside "...But he should be dead, very dead", I agree. After the whole thing with Ultima and being stringed all along by Lahabrea, he would be legitimately suspicious of the offer - given how things turned out with the Heart of Sabik. And even more so now that Omega's part of the whole picture.

On the contrary, had the Black Wolf somehow managed to survive... I assume he would be very, very motivated at getting back at Garlemald, both because of his personal woes (losing his command, losing Livia, losing... well, everything, possibly up to being disfigured) and the change in leadership with Varis now at the helm and Regula effectively serving as Gaius' replacement.

Cilia said it best: the Griffin doesn't have to be Ala Mhigan. For that, there are precedents in other narratives, i.e. the Scarlet Pimpernel being an English nobleman but operating in France, or Lelouch / Zero in Code Geass (a Britannian princeling getting back at his own homeland while operating a Japanese-borne group of freedom fighters).

But his motivations seem to be quite... heartfelt, to say the least, hence Ilberd seems to be the most likely candidate, IMHO at least.

[PArcher]

Why Gaius would trust on another ascian again after last time?

This is the biggest reason I do not believe he is Gaius. Yes, I do believe he is alive, but I feel he will come to be an ally as we get into Ala Mhigo, maybe fighting back against a Garlemald he does not believe in.

[Anonymoose]

I feel he will come to be an ally as we get into Ala Mhigo, maybe fighting back against a Garlemald he does not believe in.

Baelsar always did meet his full potential as a character in that uncomfortable gray area between friend and foe. Even when he conspired against Nael van Darnus you knew damn well he had no love for Eorzeans; they remained willfully ignorant, put their faith in false gods, trusted their nations to those with no right to lead, and refused to embrace a strong, structured order.

I also agree that the Griffin's collusion with Elidibus is hefty evidence against the Gaius theory. Plainly, the guy should know better. That's actually part of what drives me nuts about the final scenes, though. When the Griffin speaks to Elidibus, he compares their leadership, pointing out that he has provided the Ala Mhigan Resistance with tangible benefits while (correctly) assuming that the Warriors of Darkness ("your pawns") got nothing of value from him, in the end. He plainly doesn't like or trust Elidibus, as if he has some experience with how Ascian machinations work.

I need to study this patch a bit closer before I comment too much on any of it.
My understanding is still rather vague, the evidence fits from even opposite angles. <furrows brow>

[PArcher]

When the Griffin speaks to Elidibus, he compares their leadership, pointing out that he has provided the Ala Mhigan Resistance with tangible benefits while (correctly) assuming that the Warriors of Darkness ("your pawns") got nothing of value from him, in the end. He plainly doesn't like or trust Elidibus, as if he has some experience with how Ascian machinations work.

Doesn't completely discount Ilberd either; I would assume he, as leader of the Crystal Braves, would have had some sort of briefing on the Ascians, especially concerning Primal summoning. He could have also overheard a lot of discussions without people thinking twice about him

Gaius also knows that the WoL will always oppose the Ascians...and working with them is a sure-fire way to get us on him. We beat him once, with the deck stacked against us...he can't be dumb enough to try it again. Ilberd did outsmart us once (twice if you count his escape as a win of sorts), so he is more confident. Add some Ascian tools to his set, and he may believe he *could* come out ahead in a fight.

[Belhi]

If it is Ilberd it would explain the doubt. Ilberd likely also would be doing as much as he could to hide since there are some powerful people gunning for him, just not Garleans.

[Cilia]

What it boils down to is that by living in Gridania, humans are subjecting themselves to nonhuman morality. Gridania is not a free nation - their only freedom is the ability to leave - and I could never abide that. I understand why, but I still don't agree with it.

I was speaking hypothetically and in very black and white terms. Very cut and dry. A child has a terminal illness or fatal wound and a conjurer can completely heal them, but the Elementals say no. It's well-known in Gridania and the Twelveswood that the Elementals' decisions cannot be appealed to. Do you let the child die? (This isn't even entirely hypothetical - there's a couple begging a conjurer to aid their 12 year old daughter outside the Conjurer's Guild. Draw what conclusions you will.)

Back on topic, the Griffin working with Elidibus is probably solid evidence he's not Gaius, given the the legate's track record with the Ascians. However it should be noted that Elidibus is very atypical of the Ascians, favoring subtle manipulation to outright brute force as Lahabrea employed. The Griffin seems quite scathing in his criticism of Elidibus' handling of the Warriors of Darkness, but that's all I managed to take from that scene besides Elidibus' description of the Griffin's character.

At the same time, Ilberd had to have been charismatic to sway enough Crystal Braves to the Monetarists' side. It's unlikely he was the only plant by Lolorito, but even so he was able to get enough Braves to turn tail to stage a coup in Ul'dah, Limsa, and Mor Dhona simultaneously. The fact Ilberd is now a wanted man would also explain the Griffin's highly secretive MO - he masks himself, uses proxies, and confiscates mail to avoid word of his activities getting out because he knows that if anyone knew where he was and what he was doing, they'd come down on him like white on rice. It's not just Yda and Papalymo's mail not getting out - if you go chat with Meffrid in Quarrymill now he says he's heard about the Griffin, how he's impressed that he gets results despite his secretive MO, and that some of his men have joined him, but he has not heard from them in "some time."

... I really don't think it's Gaius - that's a rather improbable conclusion that feels like it's making the evidence fit its mold, rather than the other way around. The Griffin has to be either Ilberd, someone we've met before but can scarce remember like the False Griffin, or someone we've never met at all.

[PArcher]

The Griffin has to be (...) someone we've met before but can scarce remember like the False Griffin (...)

If not Ilberd, it has to be someone (some sort of Hyur male too) who has a grudge against us. So that narrows it down even further.

I really need to find time to go through the MSQ on one of my dummy alts.

[Bloody]

It is interesting to note that whoever it is, Papalymo knows. What kind of person he regrets giving the mask to, or would even be willing to help conceal the identity of in the first place, could potentially shake up the contenders a bit. However, since Papalymo knows, I would assume that any two-bit character is out of the question. It is either one of the current two main speculations, or someone from Yda's past (the King of Ruin? unlikely. Her relative, or the lost prince? I digress).