The chance of winning the 3 lines reward of Wondrous Tails is ridiculously low

[Kaldiin]

So, as soon as the patch notes, I tried to find out how to calculate the probability of winning this mini game, and this is what I deduced.

By fulfilling weekly objectives, you can gain up to 9 seals which are placed randomly on a 4 x 4 grid, as seen in the patch notes screenshots.

There appear to be this many pattern possible :
16!/[9! * (16 - 9)!] = 11440

I was able to identify 24 winning pattern.


11440 / 24 = 476

So, after going through the hassle of doing those 9 objectives, you have one chance out of 476 to win the best rewards ?

That's a lot of time for such a little chance.

Feel free to correct me if the calculation is wrong but so far, it seems a really disappointing addition.

[RyuSaarva]

yeah and if you do get it, you save like 30-40 million because you don't need to overmeld.

[mp-please]

yeah and if you do get it, you save like 30-40 million because you don't need to overmeld.

It's funny cause the people who actually need i250 pentamelded with Vs already have multiple i270 gear pieces and will most likely be full i270 before they win this. And to add up, while you can meld pentameld primaries in that the stats are capped with secondaries being complete trash.

The only real advantage is winning a crafting/gathering chestpiece but then, we're 6 months away from a expac which will make all the current crafting gear obsolete.

[Laurima]

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

[Moomba33]

I'd wager it's intentional.
SE likely wants getting gear from this content to be like winning the lottery and not a weekly farm.

[CUTS3R]

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

RNG =/= effort

[xvshanevx]

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

I think you don't understand what 'minimal' means. At least half of the required sticker's instances will take roughly 20 minutes, so that's 4.5 * 20 = 90 minutes. An hour and a half just to get half the needed stickers. Assume the other 4.5 need only about 30 minutes, giving us a total of 120 minutes to get 9 stickers.

Two hours is not bad at all!

But when you take into account the net amount of time it would take to get the best reward, well, that could be figured out by taking the assumed time, and multiplying it by the probability of successfully getting 3 lines which which is stated at 1 in 476. So, 120 * 476 = 57120 minutes or 950 hours worth of content to guarantee that you get the drop. If you did this everyday, it would take yo over a year to guarantee the best reward.

This is all under the assumption that: 1. all 9 stickers take the same amount of time to acquire, 2. that after reaching the end of the stack that you WILL get the drop (because in probability it could take more or less than the accounted 476 tries), and 3. there is no second chance points, 4. Worst case scenario! Thinking on average, then it would be near half that value, so, say, 1 in 230 or 476 hours. Still, 476 hours is quite long XP Huh. just noticed what i got matched the probability :/ Might have done something wrong T_T

What I am trying to state is that this is, by no means, a 'minimal effort' way of getting something. If anything, this takes more effort than anything else in the game, short of the Anima weapons.

[Kaurie]

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

... best? It's 250 gear, which is being handed out like candy. Yes, you can overmeld for an additional 3 slots, but big woop. Secondary stats are so weak, that will make such a small dent in your DPS, and you'll replace it instantly with 260+ gear.

That's not actually hard given how absurdly overgeared we are now. I'll just collect some friends and murder him five minutes, tops. We also do not know if syncing will be required. If it isn't, Titan dies in the blink of an eye.

And no it wouldn't. People are still buying Ironworks en masse now. ilvl 250 will be fairly relevant for several weeks as ilvl 260 will be limited to weekly drops. If Wondrous Tails offered guaranteed slots, people would wait for it before progression-- world first raiders notwithstanding. And again, no. You don't ever need to overmeld grade V materia. I can reach nearly 1,000 on both Craft and Control without overmelding either tool or the body piece at all. Grade V costs a ton because it's tedious and RNG reliant to acquire.

I do, however, agree the percentage is silly. 1-5% makes more sense; little higher if the guaranteed slots are also random. Currently, this is 0.20%

He claimed it wasn't faceroll, that doesn't mean it is really hard.

I was selling it with my fc during the i90 days. Why do you make it sound like it be would impossible now that we're overgeared, even with level sync?

I love that you are equating "Not faceroll" with "impossible"

[Kurogaea]

oh look another thread moaning about not getting the best rewards for minimal effort -_-

Yeesh ><

There is no effort. Its random. You don't need effort when things are RANDOM. Learning takes effort. Reflexes take time to improve. Random stickers take nothing.

[Avenfell]

The OP complaining about 3 lines is whining, yes. HOWEVER the entire concept of the journal is broken, I for example have not gotten a single line in over 6 weeks, not one single reward outside the 300 poetics or 10k anyone gets for collecting 9 seals. The "rng" in this game is so absurdly out of whack, why they continue to center aspects of the game around yoshi's math is beyond me. At a 97% success rate I can fail 1 in every 5 attempts forever, crafting, gathering etc. People are sick of being completely left out of the WT Journal rewards, I dont expect to get 3 lines, but ffs, one line would be nice more then once per 2 months.