I have done approximately 200 fates and have just got my 3rd weapon, so my luck is a lot worse than yours. Some get them fast others do not.
I personally am already 10 medals into my 8th weapon, and am planning to hoard the Regular medallions because they act as a counter for the number of Fates I have done. So far I am at 296 Fates for those 97 medals, which solidifies the fact that the drop rate is really around 30% instead of the 10% I keep seeing people kick around.
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