Do certain conditions increase the drop-rate of chest keys?

[Anonymoose]

Probably not; you can start any rumor in the FFO community and it'll gain steam. Take this, for instance:

It's no surprise that we're bad at this, since the whole concept of measuring probability is a recent invention. Early man didn't have any concept of what percentage of bear encounters ended in being eaten. He only knew that he didn't want to be eaten. Our brains are not meant to instinctively understand any equation more complex than this:
Bear = Run Away

Read more: 5 Logical Fallacies That Make You Wrong More Than You Think

And then of course, add in the spice of the fact that people tend to remember things that validate their theory more than they remember the times it didn't pan out. This has kept the moon rumors alive for almost a DECADE despite there being no long-term, high-sample evidence for it whatsoever. Look up the rumor that the number 47 pops up more at random than any other number, or plug 666 in and watch what happens. These theories survive for eons.

They got an HQ on a moon? HOLY SWEET MOTHER OF DJIGGA IT WAS A MOON-HQ!
But the 20 they didn't? Eh, just not lucky that day.

I'd say that's probably what's going on here, too.

Gimme 1,000 samples of minion kill and 1,000 samples of not minion kill and we'll work out the stats.