Added another Version with innovative Touch and compared the Mume+1PbP(MP1) vs the MuMe+2PbP(MP2).
For this Reason im using the function of Monte Carlo Simulator, which gives you the average Results of 500 Runs, which is spammed mulltiple times to see how the average is. Those are the results i got with equal stats(1027 Craftsmanship, 967 Control), the Results are given in expected Value & average Value:
MuMe+1PbP: 57&65 | 58&66 | 57&66 | 58&67 | 60&66 -> Avg: 58% & 66%
MuMe+2PbP: 53&61 | 59&62 | 56&56 | 58&59 | 56&56 -> Avg: 56% & 59%
This means in "average with same Sats" the MuMe+1PbP is slightly better than the MuMe+2PbP.
However, we need to include Food and Stats and that's where the difference is:
MuMe+1PbP(MP1): Craftsmanship 1027, Control 967, CP 424 - Food required is baked onion soup | Can be used on non-specialist(2 innovative Touch -> Innovation)
MuMe+2PbP(MP2): Craftsmanship 995/1022, Control 967, CP 429/427 - Food required for 995/967/429 is baked onion, for 1022/967/427 its seafood stew. | Cannot be used without Specialist (No Compensation possible)
On Paper with food this rule applies:
MP2+seafood(specialist)>MP1+onion>MP2+onion
Here's the catch though - in order to HQ with Startingquality you don't want the max/avg value, but rather consistent high IQ. Swapping out HT 80% with one or two 70% does improve your average at the cost of consistency.
8 Times HT: 0.167%
9 Times HT: 0,134%
10 Times HT: 0,107%
If 9 IQ is needed, Chance is 40,8% to HQ.
If 10 IQ is needed, Chance is 24,1% to HQ.
8 Times HT(1IT): 0,147%
9 Times HT(1IT): 0,117%
10 Times HT(1IT): 0,094%
If 9 IQ is needed, Chance is 35,8% to HQ.
If 10 IQ is needed, Chance is 21,1% to HQ.
8 Times HT(2IT): 0,128%
9 Times HT(2IT): 0,103%
10 Times HT(2IT): 0,082%
If 9 IQ is needed, Chance is 31,3% to HQ.
If 10 IQ is needed, Chance is 18,5% to HQ.
This means if you create crafts with 0 starting quality, you want to use MP2, if you want to create Food/Pots with Startingquality, you want to use MP1 without Innovative Touch.
Given those stats-requirements you can pick whichever you feel is more suitable for you. Here are the rotations i compared (Mp1 from me, Mp2 from saber):
MP1 with onion:
MP2 with seafood(Simulator cannot calculate Progress correctly):
MP2 with onion:
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