My new rotation and RNG

[LineageRazor]

Any time you think the probabilities are anything other than as advertised, follow the following time-honored process:

1. Slap yourself.
2. Do you still think 80% is not 80%? Return to step 1.

Even if the probabilities are NOT as advertised (and no, they ARE just as advertised, but let's just pretend for a moment), it does NO GOOD WHATSOEVER to speculate about it. So, 80% is really 20%. What are you going to do about it?

That leads to players starting to get crazy ideas that there's some kind of ritual they need to perform to reach the listed percentages. Suddenly we've got idiots swearing on their mothers' graves that if you craft while facing west on Iceday during a waxing crescent moon you'll get better results, or other such harebrained nonsense. Keep that crap outta my FFXIV, please!

[vp_cmc]

if you craft while facing west on Iceday during a waxing crescent moon you'll get better results

Works for me! Thanks!

[LineageRazor]

Please remember that computers just can't do truly random numbers. They do psudeo random numbers. And Squenix's psudeo random numbers are known to be streaky. So missing 3 of 4 at 90% or making 2 of 4 at 10% is not at all unusual.

But in the long run, and 1,000 is NOT the long run, it will all balance out.

Also, pseudo random numbers are indistinguishable to truly random numbers to humans. They are in no way "streaky".

You say that SE's random numbers are "known to be streaky". How do you know? Has SE come forward any admitted, "Oh, yeah - our RNG is totally streaky." Of course not. We "know" because people regularly come to the forums to complain about getting six fails out of ten 80% Hasties.

I don't know what the raw numbers are of crafters who craft regularly, but I know that there's enough out there that SOME of them are going to have unlucky streaks, and of those people, some are inevitably going to call foul and come to the forums to complain. And since folks don't come to the forums to chat about the completely normal crafting experience they have, it provides the illusion that the game is chock full of below-average crafting success. It's simply not the case. SE's RNG is, as far as any human will ever be able to tell, completely random.

[Dzian]

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if it was more weighted to fail than succeed. It's the same with gathering.

97% success on a node

You fail
You fail
You gather
You fail

Or with high quality stuff.

11% hq rate.no buffs
HQ
HQ
HQ
NQ
HQ

45% hq rate unearth 2 /leaf turn 2
NQ
NQ
NQ
NQ
NQ

See this a lot lol

[Culfinrandir]

Sometimes I wonder if it would be better for the artificial percentages to be removed from some of the content as it leads to a false expectation.

I fully understand how RNG works (my MSc heavily explored the use of statistical analysis) but most people don't & it can make the game less enjoyable if they're expecting the (often) unachievable.