My new rotation and RNG

[Gemina]

I remember when creating RNG's in school, I set up a simple button that populated a text box with "pass" or "fail". Anywho, I set the values at pass 90% / fail 10%, and I got 'fail' five times in a row. Then I increased 'pass' to 95% and still got fail two more times. Insane. The teacher came to me and jokingly said, "I guess you're just not meant to pass this course."

Sometimes RNGesus is good. Sometimes... not so much.

[LineageRazor]

Any time you think the probabilities are anything other than as advertised, follow the following time-honored process:

1. Slap yourself.
2. Do you still think 80% is not 80%? Return to step 1.

Even if the probabilities are NOT as advertised (and no, they ARE just as advertised, but let's just pretend for a moment), it does NO GOOD WHATSOEVER to speculate about it. So, 80% is really 20%. What are you going to do about it?

That leads to players starting to get crazy ideas that there's some kind of ritual they need to perform to reach the listed percentages. Suddenly we've got idiots swearing on their mothers' graves that if you craft while facing west on Iceday during a waxing crescent moon you'll get better results, or other such harebrained nonsense. Keep that crap outta my FFXIV, please!

[vp_cmc]

if you craft while facing west on Iceday during a waxing crescent moon you'll get better results

Works for me! Thanks!

[Dzian]

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if it was more weighted to fail than succeed. It's the same with gathering.

97% success on a node

You fail
You fail
You gather
You fail

Or with high quality stuff.

11% hq rate.no buffs
HQ
HQ
HQ
NQ
HQ

45% hq rate unearth 2 /leaf turn 2
NQ
NQ
NQ
NQ
NQ

See this a lot lol

[Culfinrandir]

Sometimes I wonder if it would be better for the artificial percentages to be removed from some of the content as it leads to a false expectation.

I fully understand how RNG works (my MSc heavily explored the use of statistical analysis) but most people don't & it can make the game less enjoyable if they're expecting the (often) unachievable.