Live Letter XXX Discussion Thread

[SpiritMuse]

Your math is flawed. We have 50% to continue at each gate, but since we got kicked out if we failed, the chance we reach a floor is directly tied to the chance we reach the previous floor. Also, what Arinnaid calculated, is the chance we "can" reach a specific floor, from the beginning in one section. It will only stay 50% chance for every floor if we have 7 doors to choose at beginning and WON'T get kicked if we open the wrong door.

There are two different things going on here.

First, the probability of picking the right door on each floor individually, which in the case of two doors will always be 50%. Previous choices have no influence on this. No matter what happened to get you there, each floor will give you a fresh 50/50 chance of picking the right door.

Second, the probability of picking the right door seven times in a row, which is a separate calculation and is indeed much smaller than 50%.