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Do we think the "offset a bit" is the total time of maintenances in the 45 day period?
It probably depends on what the maintenance (if any) is. If they turned off/restarted the servers, the clock (possibly) stopped running while it was off, if they didn't, it probably doesn't.

When it's at 30 days though it appears on the timers page (which the tenants also see, even though they can't reset it) and I've heard the email you get will give you an exact time, but again that might be offset by maintenance.

But it's more of a "you have 45 days, if you don't want to lose it, enter it" rather than "you have 45 days and maybe some extra time", so you're really safer assuming it's 45 days from the point you entered and nothing else.