In regard to the OP random success/failure rates - you are so right on. I've been bitching about this since I started crafting. I've managed to level a fair amount of crafts, but not without many fits of bewilderment and outright anger. You see, I'm of the silly belief that the higher level you get in a craft, the easier a particular recipe should become, and HQ succes should be improved. The extent of RNG in the current coding is unacceptable. Crafting is such a big part of this game. To have stuff just random success/failure or NQ vs HQ with little or no regard to competency (level) vs. recipe difficulty is nothing but a major cop out in the coding. I'm so tired of endlessly farming materials, day after day, only to have materials HQ attempts fail time after time after time, even with 350+ quality and the recipe 30 levels below me, and the next one HQ with 30 quality. This just isn't right.
I've also am convinced there is a periodic 'rage' coding that kicks in time to time for 6-7 unexplicable fails, then the next 10-12 synths I finish with 70+ durability. This is plain, unjustified bullsh*t. If I wanted a game that was an absolute crap shoot, I'd go to Vegas. I expect better than this in this game.
While I do understand the need for some variability/randomness in the result, this isn't fun, nor is it acceptable. The pain associated with leveling a craft to ultimate level, buying/making the best gear, getting the best abilities like Hand of the Gods and Perfection should be rewarded, not ignored.
Kudos to the OP for bringing this up. I've posted on this very subject many many times, and not a single response from the development team addressing this ><
BTW I just got done synthing up some mythril nuggets, that @ R50 I get 26 xp for. Without getting cute, i.e. not just spamming Careful Synth, I failed this with Hand of the Gods and Perfection. Go figure ><