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  1. #1
    Player
    Rebellius555's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Posts
    26
    Character
    Kogami Shinya
    World
    Shiva
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaurie View Post
    They can change it to not be random - or have fail safes. Someone, for example, suggested that 99 totems that drop anyway (currently used for weapons) can be used to purchase the whistle.
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    (1)

  2. #2
    Player Kaurie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    2,427
    Character
    Kaurie Lorhart
    World
    Leviathan
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Rebellius555 View Post
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    I believe the first mount I've ever won was with a 27. I think it's just statistics though. Chances are 1 in 10 that a person will roll between 90 and 100, and there are 8 people rolling. I don't feel like doing the maths, but that seems like decent odds that someone will roll above 90.
    (2)

  3. #3
    Player
    PirateCat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    235
    Character
    Leopold Sidney
    World
    Coeurl
    Main Class
    Alchemist Lv 80
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaurie View Post
    I believe the first mount I've ever won was with a 27. I think it's just statistics though. Chances are 1 in 10 that a person will roll between 90 and 100, and there are 8 people rolling. I don't feel like doing the maths, but that seems like decent odds that someone will roll above 90.
    Any given player has a 10/99 chance of rolling a 90 or higher (since 100 and 0 aren't possible results for a need/greed roll.) The odds of at least one person rolling 90 or more are the inverse of the odds that no one rolls that high. 1 - (89/99)^8 = roughly a 57.3% chance that at least one person rolls 90 or higher if everyone rolls for it. The probability increases slightly if multiple people can't roll the same value.

    So it's fairly common for someone to roll 90 or more. If it happens every time then that's possibly a bit suspect, but anecdotal reports of this could be attributable to small sample size and/or confirmation bias.
    (3)

  4. #4
    Player
    Jamillion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Uldah
    Posts
    612
    Character
    Calypso Celeste
    World
    Lamia
    Main Class
    Archer Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Rebellius555 View Post
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    You can't roll 100, it only goes from 1-99 (with 0 being reserved for passes.)
    (2)

  5. #5
    Player
    MrPresident's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Posts
    329
    Character
    Casper Colt
    World
    Cerberus
    Main Class
    Summoner Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Rebellius555 View Post
    This is what I wanted to refer to, but the character limit wouldn't let me. Well, they managed to do something like that for Savage already. You either get your drop or a page which you can later trade for your desired item.

    I also spotted something weird in all this. Ever noticed someone always rolls above 90 for a primal mount? I have not seen a single person winning it with 72 or 85 for example. Another thing is that I never ever actually seen someone rolling a perfect 100.
    I won a Rose Lanner with a 79, and saw someone before that win with 59.
    (0)

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