36 weeks of Jumbo Cactpot playing the same numbers

[Seshayn]

Have never matched the last number. Ever. If I randomed every week and never matched, sure. But playing the exact same set of numbers and the last one with a 10% chance to winner winner chicken dinner, and not once has it matched? Eat. A. ______. I'll give you a hint. Think Pink Zucchini.

I ran Ultros and Tyhon around 1000 times for my Terra card. In short SE, ******** ****** in the ******* you ******* ******* ************** wetness ********** *********** with a bag of legos.

[MilesSaintboroguh]

Or you can, you know, try another number.

[Torunya]

I like lego.

[Seshayn]

Or you can, you know, try another number.

Oh look. Someone from Balmung without a brain who misses the point of things. That's totally a new thing.

[Pence]

I just hit the random button a few times and let it go.

Last number has matched for past 2 weeks.

Maybe you should stop playing the Lost numbers?

[Rufalus]

In a year of playing mini and jumbo cactpots, I earned a total 1 million from the mini, and only 20k from the jumbo in the same amount of time, or 50 times slower. Reaching the 1M from jumbo achievement is going to be entirely impossible within the lifetime of the game unless I win the 1-in-10,000 chance first prize jackpot or they make a huge adjustment to how much you get for losing and how often you can play.

[Heliantheae]

I play the most important number in the entire universe: 1988. That's the year I was born. And it hasn't hit yet, but that's okay. Cause everytime I talk to the lady and I get Participation Reward I tell her she CAN GO FIND ME IN THE ALPS!

Or you can, you know, try another number.

That's when it'll hit. Always.

[Neophyte]

Have never matched the last number. Ever. If I randomed every week and never matched, sure. But playing the exact same set of numbers and the last one with a 10% chance to winner winner chicken dinner, and not once has it matched? Eat. A. ______. I'll give you a hint. Think Pink Zucchini.

I ran Ultros and Tyhon around 1000 times for my Terra card. In short SE, ******** ****** in the ******* you ******* ******* ************** wetness ********** *********** with a bag of legos.

Or you can, you know, try another number.

It does not matter, if you stick always to the same number or change it every week.

Out of 10.000 ppl playing the cackpot there are statistically 200 ppl who never won within the last 36 weeks (but also >400 who won it 7+ times).

http://imgur.com/VkwB6dc

[Callback]

They need to make it daily draws, if nothing else.

I would probably also change it to match against all 4 of your numbers, not just the last one(s). Same prizes as current.

Current:
0 match: 90%
1 match: 9%
2 match: 0.9%
3 match: 0.09%
Jackpot : 0.01%
Average payout: 459 per drawing
Average time to achievement: 41.9 years

Adjusted:
0 match: 65.61%
1 match: 29.16%
2 match: 4.86%
3 match: 0.36%
Jackpot : 0.01%
Average payout: 1303 per drawing
Average time to achievement: 2.1 years

Those odds, especially on a daily draw, are a lot more exciting (things HAPPEN instead of constantly nothing), and we can expect *some* people to get the achievement within the game's lifespan.

For comparison, mini cactpot pays out ~1500 on average per card (9.52% chance of having a 10k line on a given card, equal odds of a 3600, skewed based on what you choose to reveal and going for the biggest one you can't rule out.) Average time to achievement: 32 weeks.

Even with my suggested buffs (once per day, pay out on ANY match) it's still worth less than a single mini. Squeenix should have nothing to worry about allowing us to have this.


Edit:
Better(?) suggestion: Since mini still trumps it by so much, buff it further. Give it Mastermind-style matching, and increase the payout.

base pay: 100.
Every perfect match: x10 multiplier
Every soft match (wrong position): x5 multiplier.




I am lazy right now and this is a lot more math. If someone wants to do it and calculate the average payout please do.
Here's a template:

0 matches:
1x odds:

1 match:
5x odds:
10x odds:

2 match:
25x odds:
50x odds:
100x odds:

3 match:
125x odds:
250x odds:
500x odds:
1000x odds:

4 match:
625x odds:
1250x odds:
2500x odds:
Jackpot odds: 0.01%

Average payout:
Average time to achievement:


Also keep in mind, since repeats are allowed, the probabilities are different between random guesses and intentional ones. Choosing 4 different numbers over 4 of the same as your guess, for example, would significantly reduce your chances of a 0 when comparing against a random number, while increasing odds of more soft matches. This is a complex problem and any insight is appreciated. We may need to expand this template to have room for both random and each of the 5 types of spread you can pick.

[MilesSaintboroguh]

Heh, OP, you must be taking this way too seriously if you are going to dismiss me simply because of the server I play on.