Yes it will be interesting. I think that we need to not over-simplify things. As you say down below:
Further, there are things coming out this year that may take people away from the game. It's quite possible that the tuned down raid will be more widely enjoyed, but may receive fewer clear numbers due to already lost players and/or losing players to other games. I know that I am leaning more and more towards moving to WoW for Legion's launch with each live letter/interview that I read.However, a lot of the damage that's been done may be irreversible. There are likely players who quit based on the difficulty of Savage (who would have stayed around if it had instead been at Coil difficulty and they'd been more able to make progress) who won't come back regardless of how difficult Midas is.
Unfortunately, we have a severe lack of data. Further, the data we do have is prone to being misinterpreted, due to the lack of other data. I think you make an alright argument, but I'd say that the higher end raiders make a pretty significant impact on the economy. I know that raiding food and potions are quite expensive, but are rarely used outside of progression. At least, I've never known anyone to eat HQ foods or use HQ pots in dungeons/expert roulette (or even Void Ark), but I've almost never seen someone not use these in Alexander Savage (or coil). If the prices are as high as they are, the demand must be pretty high or the supply pretty short - I'm honestly unsure of which - but would guess it's demand. If the hardcore raiders left, that is a significant chunk of players who want to be on the 'bleeding edge' of progression. Once mid-core groups get there, they can get away with not having food/pots, as they are generally geared well enough to make the DPS checks without them. This is my reasoning for believing that Hardcore Raiders have a significant crafting impact.
That said, i don't think that lowering Midas difficulty will all of a sudden remove hardcore raiders from the game. I think uninspired, recycled content and lackluster responses to consumer feedback are what will.On top of that, you likely will lose some hardcore players due to it being too easy. If Gordias had been at Coil-level difficulty, you might still have lost those players, but now they're going to lose them in addition to the group they already lost by alienating them with Gordias' difficulty, rather than losing them instead of that group.
I don't think they needed to make more encounters, but simply tune the encounters they have.
A4 should be much harder than it is
A3 should be harder than it is
A2 should be slightly harder than it is
A1 should be as is
A1S should be as is
A2S should be harder than it is
A3S should be easier than it is
A4S should be as is
This would have a more natural progression of difficulty
I doubt this made much of a difference. If all of my SMN stats were made to INT equivalents using stat weights - I had with my 200 eso weapon 3404 INT. With my Relic, I am at 3445. Thordan EX would have been about half way in between. That 40 INT gain to my relic is roughly a 1% increase in INT, and has indeed given me about a 1% increase in DPS - from 1333 to 1343 on my dummy parse. The issue is that all stats, including weapon damage and main stat, are becoming less important with each gear step (diminishing returns and all).

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