Something needs to be done about Alex Normal looting system.

[Zova]

.....

I don't have the time to do the math right now but I can at least point out the flaw in your methodology that is leading to your abnormally low numbers. The problem is that you are only considering getting 1 drop per run as a single combination.

For instance, if I were to receive a single item as a drop, we would need to consider all the possible combinations that this can occur in. Looking at the instance in which I win the first drop but lose all the other drops, then we need to consider all possibilities for the last 3 drops in which I do not win.

The number of possible combinations for this outcome of Win|Lose|Lose|Lose is:

N = 1*7*7*7 = 343

It is 7 per roll for the last three since there are 7 possible winners for each of the three remaining drops, since I have stipulated that I only win one roll, I don't count myself. Then the odds I win one drop, and that drop is the first drop is:

Odds = 343/4096 = .08 or 8%.

Remember that there are actually 4 possibilities of one win and three losses, so my real odds of winning 1 item is closer to 30%. Adding in the possibility of winning more than one increases these odds even further.