Something needs to be done about Alex Normal looting system.

[Pibz]

As the title says, right now the way Alex normal loot works is you have no lockout for the week nor for the run and as such the chances of you getting any item in any given run if everyone rolls for everything is (edit: actually / said 1/8 before /facepalm) ~2/5 (ie the expected return in items per 5 runs is 2..) which is worse than what we had before the lockout was removed (edit: this is still true).


The solution is simple and should've come naturally when they removed the lockout.. Just make a run "lockout" in that each person is not allowed to win more than one roll per run (maybe remove this if full group queued or if loot master is on), it's incredibly frustrating to see people get multiple items when most get nothing and looking at the low chances of getting anything is pretty discouraging. (edit: still stand by this)

(edit: not as urgent as i thought)

For what it's worth i think this should be implemented into 24man raids when they no longer have a weekly lockout as well.

edit: So i messed up the maths in the original unedited post pretty bad (ugh), guess that's what happens when you do math when you're tired.
Zova got it right in his reply further in the thread so yeah. Anyway while not nearly as urgent as my bad-thoughtless math showed it to be, i still see no reason for it not to be improved since the gear is outdated and being able to get something every 2 runs is still better than 3 for outdated content in my opinion.. But yeah, i recognize my mistake and it wasn't as big an issue as i was making it to be.

It's still pretty idiotic to dismiss something where someone is trying to show an issue and giving a solution by saying "LOL QQ MORE" so, fridge (and all you genius white knights who upvoted him) you're still in the wrong for having that attitude cause it's stuff like that make the devs think they can just shove retarded grinds down our mouth, and this doesn't change just because my numbers were off, as you clearly didn't even see the mistake yourself.

[FridgePanic]

Boo hoo why didn't RNGesus smile upon me today

[Archaell]

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

[Martin_Arcainess]

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

50%? na it's a lot lower then that now that 1 person could potential acquire all 4 items in 1 go, if you gonna do % I'd say more along the lines of 12.5%.

but totally agree with OP it's got worse now that the loot res was removed.

[Kaurie]

I agree the current design is horrible (as it was on release). I would prefer the actual items to drop than these tokens.

There are 4 items per run. 4/8. You have 50% chance to win an item every run... if you run it enough times :P (Also sometimes players need only what they really need, which increases the chance to win an item)

Each item doesn't effect the chances of winning the next item. Essentially there are a much larger number of possibilities of receiving an item. So yes, there are increased variables in which you'll receive a loot drop, but there are exponentially increase variables in which you don't. So the value is still around 1 in 8 (I believe, I haven't done the math).

But I agree that if you need something like the shaft, where everyone is doing A4 to get shafts, it can be pain to farm it. The best way to fix your problem is to create a PF party.

I kind of agree with this, but even that is stupid. To get a full 8 person party all 4 shafts will take you 32 runs.

In my opinion Ex like token system would be better... but SE.

100% agree. The loot should just drop with everyone receiving a token, so that if they don't receive their item in X runs they can purchase it. Move all equipment slots to 10 items needed. Give 1 bolt, 1 pedal in A1, 1 lens, 1 chain in A2, 1 crank, 1 spring in A3 and 1 shaft in A4 in addition to 2 random equipment items from the loot list.



I spent 15 hours doing Alex normal (floors 1 and 4) this weekend, and I got 3 bolts. Fun times.

[Callback]

A new system in general might be nice.

System 1, "Everybody gets one": Every player gets 1 successful "Need" roll per day, shared among all instances with this rule. Greeds are unlimited.

System 2, "Priorities": Greeding or passing on items in an instance stocks "priority points" (pass stocks far more than greed, points only kept in single instance). These points are added to your next need roll.

In the alex example, since there is 1 loot of 4 items per run, your best odds would be to pass 3 of them then need the last one getting a 3x pass bonus and giving you superior (but not guaranteed, especially if someone else wants it just as badly) odds of getting the thing you want.

[Archaell]

I agree the current design is horrible (as it was on release). I would prefer the actual items to drop than these tokens.



Each item doesn't effect the chances of winning the next item. Essentially there are a much larger number of possibilities of receiving an item. So yes, there are increased variables in which you'll receive a loot drop, but there are exponentially increase variables in which you don't. So the value is still around 1 in 8 (I believe, I haven't done the math).

That's why I said if you do it enough times. Of course in the smaller sample size it is highly improbable to get close to 50% ^.^

[Kaurie]

That's why I said if you do it enough times. Of course in the smaller sample size it is highly improbable to get close to 50% ^.^

but running it more doesn't increase your chances of getting it on a given run, it simply increases your chances of getting it period.

It's been awhile since I've done stats, probability etc - so I need some help with this, as it doesn't seem quite right. Here is what I haev so far.

Say w, x, y and z dropped. You have the following loot possibilities:
wzxy, w, wx, wxy, wyz, wy, wxz, x, xy, xyz, xz, y, yz, z = 14 possible scenarios of receiving an item.

Then there are 8 possible outcomes for each item (1 of 8 people could get each of x, y, z and w), so there are 8 * 8 * 8 * 8 = 4096 possible outcomes.

so your chances of winning is 14 in 4096. However, this seems particularly low (much lower than I'd expect at 1 in 8). Please, tear apart my math and show me what I did wrong.

[Archaell]

...

If we look at one single run then ok. It was a joke, as I was looking at RNG from the bigger picture instead of the individual experience.

I am not good with math, but we should not get bellow 1/8 for each item, so rolling for 4 should improve the probability from 12.5%.

[ChameleonMS]

Please, tear apart my math and show me what I did wrong.

Each loot roll is independent of all others. Combining the probabilities as you did was your mistake for determining a roll outcome.
A player has a 1 / (8 - passers) chance of winning a loot role.

Now, if you want to determine the probabilities of winning specific combination of rolls (e.g. wyz) your math is fine.