Drop Rates of some items is rediculous!

[Felis]

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

2 times any gear is still random.

[Gamer3427]

The funny thing is that while I'm fully aware that it's pure RNG and that any combination can happen, right after looking at this thread earlier, I ran Void Ark and the MCH/BRD pants dropped three times in that one run. I'm still convinced that it's not true RNG and that it's actually some evil being hidden in the servers deciding to screw with players in what ever method it finds the most hilarious.....

[hagare]

First of all, "rediculous" isn't a word. Secondly, the R in RNG stands for "random". As in it sucks, but welcome to FFXIV, enjoy your stay. Go after tome gear if you want certainty.

it should be ridonkulous!
and yes random is random.

[PArcher]

I'm late to this party, but I did an Ark run today...and 3, yes THREE MNK pants dropped in the run (two from the same boss!) So yeah...

[Azazua_azura]

im having deja vu didn't someone have a similar thread same title 2 weeks ago over void ark healing pants?

I think they was a highlamder male too.

(loopy from cold meds)

[Yasminou]

Oh, okay. LOL
Let's math this out. (And feel free to correct my math, others out there who are better at this than I am.) In Void Ark, there are a possible 21 items to drop on each boss, according to the loot tables and two chests per boss.

Probability = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of possible outcomes)
So the probability of a drop is 2/21 (two desirable outcomes out of a possible 21 drops). That means that you have a 4.76% chance to see a specific item of loot drop in a chest.

Odds = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of undesirable outcomes) So if you are looking for a specific piece of loot, then you have 1 desirable outcome out of a possible 20 outcomes per chest. Odds are seeing the 1 piece you want become 5%

However, the odds of prior drops do not influence the odds of future drops, as someone else linked to know as Gambler's Fallacy. The more you run VA and see other drops happening, doesn't mean that the 1 desirable drop you want is more likely to happen. For example, if you flip a coin you have a 50-50 chance of getting heads and a 50-50 chance of getting tails. If you get 10 heads in a row, that still means that on your next flip the odds are still 50-50. If you see the same loot in a row, or even dropping at the same time, then that doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with RNG. It just means that you're unlucky so far.

I am not sure to understand your computation. I agree that each boss has 21 possible drops, but the number of desirable outcomes is 1 if you aim to get a particular piece (even though there are two independent drops) or 2 if you aim to get a piece among 2 (for instance healer's and caster's bodies). To see that your formula is incorrect, imagine that each chest had 22 drops instead of 2, you would have a strictly greater than 1 probability.

Each piece can drop from two bosses (A and B) and each boss's chest has two drops (which can be the same), let's say A1/A2 and B1/B2. The probability of not seeing a particular piece is that the outcomes of A1, A2, B1 and B2 are not this piece, hence (20/21)^4. Therefore, the probability of seeing it at least once is 1-(20/21)^4 which is roughly 0.1773.

If someone aims to get any of two pieces for a same role, then it gets more complicated depending whether this two pieces can drop from a same boss or not. Let's assume one wants the healer's body or the healer's legs. Legs drop from the 2d boss (outcomes B1, B2) and the last boss (outcomes D1, D2). Bodies drop from the 3rd boss (outcomes C1, C2) and the last boss (outcomes D1, D2). If we expect not to see any of these pieces then the probability is (20/21)^4 (20/21 for B1, B2, C1, C2) times (19/21)^2 (19/21 for D1, D2). Therefore the probability of seeing at least one of these piece is 1-(19/21)^2*(20/21)^4 which is roughly 0.3265.
Finally, if both pieces do not drop from the same bosses, let's say healer's head (1st and 2d boss so outcomes A1, A2, B1, B2) and healer's chest (outcomes C1, C2, D1, D2), then the probability of seeing at least one of these pieces drop is 1-(20/21)^8=0.3232.

Cheers.

[AskaRay]

I know RNG is RNG but I've still only ever seen three ranged items drop in the new dungeons.... sigh

[Yukiko]

The funny thing is that while I'm fully aware that it's pure RNG and that any combination can happen, right after looking at this thread earlier, I ran Void Ark and the MCH/BRD pants dropped three times in that one run. I'm still convinced that it's not true RNG and that it's actually some evil being hidden in the servers deciding to screw with players in what ever method it finds the most hilarious.....

While its true that a PRNG (pseudo random number generator) isnt the best generator for "randomness" (because patterns repeating based on used seed length - depending on used algorithm) the Problem we actually see must not be the roll from the generator. If you develop "randomness" and try to weight them (lets say: if 2 piece in same chest drop, just reroll second one) it can be the source of problem too (if the ruleset you are using to frame the generator does not work correct). Same as we are having a server<->client network and because of security the server is rolling the numbers. Thats also why you have not only "your" try alone because the pattern from PRNG effects the future rolls. When there is only one RNG rolling for the whole server that means you have a very high number of "rolls" which makes the odds appear more often because "your" rolls are no longer in the "first pattern" (lets say your first roll is in patternA then others are rolling and patternA is full, opening patternB and now you roll again -> there is a possibility that you pinpoint the exact location again with your roll). We are not having a "real life" randomness, we are having a programmed one that is using an algorithm.

We have 2 different ways to program RNGs:
1) RNG algorithm that are made for high numbers (Millions and more)
2) RNG algorithm that are made for low numbers (dice rolls)

The Problem you have with games, special with Massively Multiplayer games is that the playernumber is mostly high but you need to roll low numbers (1-20).
The chance to drop twice is not the problem we "see", it is the repeated sight of such odds that makes it strange! Furthermore, we have to face lags (and other server<->client issues) which can cause errors in RNG rolls too!

1st year collage programmer can program you a better RNG. It must not be a TRNG (true random number generator) but to have some sort of frame (or lets say a fail safe system) is common in modern programming. To believe solely on the algorithm alone is just careless but thats what we are having (pure RNG).

Because the limitations of an PRNG it also is an issue when you stack RNG on top of an RNG (lets say you do not like the outcome and let the same RNG roll again - that does not work, just test it if you are programmer). To solve that problem you have to use some deeper programming and "change" something (example: change the seed - lets say you use the outcome as new source for the rerolling)

[Ruri]

I have 4/5 pieces of the healer set already, I've done no more than 3 void ark runs a week. It's total RNG luck and I got lucky with these.

[Neophyte]

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

You know, once i rolled two 6's playing monopoly. And then... it happened a second time in the same game. Ridiculous, Monopoly's rng is broken.