Drop Rates of some items is rediculous!

[Yasminou]

Oh, okay. LOL
Let's math this out. (And feel free to correct my math, others out there who are better at this than I am.) In Void Ark, there are a possible 21 items to drop on each boss, according to the loot tables and two chests per boss.

Probability = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of possible outcomes)
So the probability of a drop is 2/21 (two desirable outcomes out of a possible 21 drops). That means that you have a 4.76% chance to see a specific item of loot drop in a chest.

Odds = (# of desirable outcomes)/(# of undesirable outcomes) So if you are looking for a specific piece of loot, then you have 1 desirable outcome out of a possible 20 outcomes per chest. Odds are seeing the 1 piece you want become 5%

However, the odds of prior drops do not influence the odds of future drops, as someone else linked to know as Gambler's Fallacy. The more you run VA and see other drops happening, doesn't mean that the 1 desirable drop you want is more likely to happen. For example, if you flip a coin you have a 50-50 chance of getting heads and a 50-50 chance of getting tails. If you get 10 heads in a row, that still means that on your next flip the odds are still 50-50. If you see the same loot in a row, or even dropping at the same time, then that doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with RNG. It just means that you're unlucky so far.

I am not sure to understand your computation. I agree that each boss has 21 possible drops, but the number of desirable outcomes is 1 if you aim to get a particular piece (even though there are two independent drops) or 2 if you aim to get a piece among 2 (for instance healer's and caster's bodies). To see that your formula is incorrect, imagine that each chest had 22 drops instead of 2, you would have a strictly greater than 1 probability.

Each piece can drop from two bosses (A and B) and each boss's chest has two drops (which can be the same), let's say A1/A2 and B1/B2. The probability of not seeing a particular piece is that the outcomes of A1, A2, B1 and B2 are not this piece, hence (20/21)^4. Therefore, the probability of seeing it at least once is 1-(20/21)^4 which is roughly 0.1773.

If someone aims to get any of two pieces for a same role, then it gets more complicated depending whether this two pieces can drop from a same boss or not. Let's assume one wants the healer's body or the healer's legs. Legs drop from the 2d boss (outcomes B1, B2) and the last boss (outcomes D1, D2). Bodies drop from the 3rd boss (outcomes C1, C2) and the last boss (outcomes D1, D2). If we expect not to see any of these pieces then the probability is (20/21)^4 (20/21 for B1, B2, C1, C2) times (19/21)^2 (19/21 for D1, D2). Therefore the probability of seeing at least one of these piece is 1-(19/21)^2*(20/21)^4 which is roughly 0.3265.
Finally, if both pieces do not drop from the same bosses, let's say healer's head (1st and 2d boss so outcomes A1, A2, B1, B2) and healer's chest (outcomes C1, C2, D1, D2), then the probability of seeing at least one of these pieces drop is 1-(20/21)^8=0.3232.

Cheers.

[Cnidarian]

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

That's why in real life when I roll two 20 sided die at the same time, I sometimes get the same number on each?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is normal with random being random.

[Glenfiddich]

You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

Quote from a Developer

"We found that this had a lot of problems where players would run into streaks, and they only remembered the shitty streaks. So what we decided to do was we took a page out of ..., which had a very elegant design which they referred to as 'progressive percentages.' ...In ..., every creature that is part of the collection quest has the item 100% of the time, but we do a progressive system where we up the chance the player [gets the item] each time he kills it. The problem was, when we put it live in the beta--and we didn't tell anybody this--we found that while it was great that it got rid of the bad streaks, it also got rid of all the good streaks. And overall we needed to raise the base drop percentage to around 45%"

That tells me very clearly that someone has failed by creating the drop percentage in FFXIV

[Felis]

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

2 times any gear is still random.

[Neophyte]

Thats why in void ark the exact same gear drops twice or more in same run and even in same chest?!
You must not be a genius to notice something is odd with ffxiv RNG

You know, once i rolled two 6's playing monopoly. And then... it happened a second time in the same game. Ridiculous, Monopoly's rng is broken.

[randysquirrel]

You know, once i rolled two 6's playing monopoly. And then... it happened a second time in the same game. Ridiculous, Monopoly's rng is broken.

anecdotal evidence.
pics or it didn't happen

[Bixillarla]

Each chest has a loot pool and a chance to drop each piece of loot. Yes the same loot can drop in the same run or from the same chest, each time loot is need it selects at random the piece that drops. Just because a piece drops doesn't mean it won't drop again in the same run.

[Malzian]

Unlike most other MMOs which used weighted RNG for the drops you'll see (if more people have seen one particular type of drop in a dungeon as a group, it's more likely they'll see different loot the next time), XIV uses an unweighted RNG, which means a 10% drop rate doesn't mean if you run something 10 times you'll see it drop, but that every time you run it the item has a 10% chance to drop. Thinking that running it more often will increase your odds is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.

[Derio]

Just bad luck for you. One time I ran it and all monk gear dropped and in the second to last boss 2 pieces of monk gear that were the same dropped and no monks were even in our group.

[enthauptet]

Well at least you get double the chance compared to crystal tower. Still waiting for that bard chest piece lol.