Well by my math there's about a 22.7% chance of missing exactly 3/7 at 70%, and a 35.3% chance of missing at least 3/7. Then a 10% chance of failing reclaim, so it's roughly a 3.53% chance of failing at least 3 hasties and a reclaim.

You really need to rework your rotation if you are crafting something worth enough to consider using reclaim.