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  1. #6
    Player
    Galactimus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    638
    Character
    Clive Hawkins
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    Paladin Lv 90
    Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

    P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

    P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

    P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

    P(x) = 0.02258945

    23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
    2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

    (I think ♪)


    Edit:
    7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

    Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
    Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
    Etc. = 35

    1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
    Fail. = 1
    (5)
    Last edited by Galactimus; 11-26-2015 at 01:38 PM.