Anyone good at math?

[Train88]

I'm curious. What are the odds of failing 3 70% chance hasty touch out of 7, before failing a 90% reclaim?

Edit: on a scale of good to bad maybe?

[Miyu20]

If my high school math teacher taught me correctly then the math should be a simple (1-0.7)*(3/7)*(1-0.9) which adds up to an approximate 1.3% chance of these events occurring. Not very likely but it's more likely to happen than your 1% Quality HQs.

(Maybe my math teacher didn't teach me right though )

[jcfoster11]

It may be even lower than that. We can look at it in three parts:

1. Fail 3 Hasty Touches: .3 * .3 * .3 = .027

AND

2. Pass 4 Hasty Touches: .7 * .7 * .7 * .7 = .2401

AND

3. Fail Reclaim: .1

Combining all of those gives .027 * .2401 * .1 = .065% (Unless you're me, that is. I'd fail at least 6 more often than not, probably. -.-)

[TheCurls]

I've found that the odds of that happening are about 85-90%.

[Elvin]

I would say that is a 0.064827%...

I'll blame the hour if I failed, but I don't think so XD

Anyway, is not that low.

For instance, the chances of someone winning the national UK lotery playing with one number seems to be around 0.00000715112% , wich is about 9065 times more probable.

[Galactimus]

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

[Medura]

Odds = [3/7 tries failed @ 70%] * [1/1 tries failed @ 90%]
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

P(x) = [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)] * [nCx * p^x * q^(n-x)]

P(x) = [7C3 * (0.3)^3 * (0.70)^4] * [1C1 * (0.1)^1 * (0.9)^0]

P(x) = [35 * 0.027 * 0.2401] * [1 * 0.1 * 1]

P(x) = 0.2258945 * 0.1

P(x) = 0.02258945

23% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches
2.3% chance you fail 3/7 Hasty Touches and a Reclaim.

(I think ♪)


Edit:
7C3 = Number of different combinations you can fail 3 out of 7 attempts. Example:

Fail, Fail, Fail, Win, Win, Win, Win
Fail, Fail, Win, Fail, Win, Win, Win
Etc. = 35

1C1 = Number of different combinations you can fail 1 out of 1 attempt.
Fail. = 1

thanks for having this at the end, with what all the others had written, i felt like i had to say it :P Its almost 7 am, i should get to bed ...

[WrenDark]

We joke in my LS and FC about this. "There is RNG and then there is SE RNG. Either way both are painful."

[Miyu20]

Thank you for teaching us basic math ,^^;; Feel so dumb. There's the answer!

[StouterTaru]

Well by my math there's about a 22.7% chance of missing exactly 3/7 at 70%, and a 35.3% chance of missing at least 3/7. Then a 10% chance of failing reclaim, so it's roughly a 3.53% chance of failing at least 3 hasties and a reclaim.

You really need to rework your rotation if you are crafting something worth enough to consider using reclaim.