In the OP's trace it looks more like a Level3 issue.

Though, Orange does have a history with both FFXI and FFXIV (they caught an exception in the headers back around 2.0 launch and tweaked things considerably back then). So if you open formal tickets with them they may be able to move on it somewhat quickly. Make sure to provide them a valid address for testing--either the one your client actually uses (look it up in resmon or a netstat after logging fully in to the game), or give them the lobby server name (neolobby06.ffxiv.com). Their past history with FFXIV will be referencing the old 199 subnet and ASN for Ormuco, but they need to be looking at the new 195 subnet and ASN for KDDI (AS8375). The peering is mostly through Telia and Level3---pretty sure Orange has a good enough working relationship with those peers to make things happen if needed.