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  1. #1
    Player
    Silverbane's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Posts
    1,125
    Character
    Z'nnah Silverbane
    World
    Halicarnassus
    Main Class
    Sage Lv 100

    Odds of getting G/E Proces in L58 and 2-Star L60 recipes (updated)

    I tracked the occurance of Good/Excellent conditions on a Level 58 35 durability recipe (Adamantite Nugget) and a L60 2-Star 70 durability recipe (Adamantite Ingots).
    I then did an experiment on a 2-Star Level 60 70 durability craft.

    For Adamantite Nuggets, out of 665 applicable steps, I counted 94 Good or Excellent conditions.
    For Adamantite Ingots, out of 336 applicable steps, I counted 29 Good or Excellent conditions. See update below.
    Applicable steps excludes the last step.

    The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L58 d35 recipe seems to be about 1 in 7 (14.14%).
    The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.5 (8.63%). See update below.

    Based on the sample sizes, the 93% (2 standard deviation) confidence interval is:
    For L58: 14.14% +/- 2.45%
    For L60 2-Star: 8.63% +/- 2.78%
    I will try to get more samples to narrow the confidence interval. Feel free to submit your experiences.

    Update: We did some more L60 2-Star, with 404 opportunities for G/E condition, and had 38 occur.
    The percentage of occurrence in mats was about 9.43%, and the percentage in finished tools was 9.34%

    Adding these samples to the previous once, we get:
    The chance of a Good/EXC during a step of a L60 2-Star d70 recipe seems to be about 1 in 11.0 (9.05%).
    Confidence Interval for L60 2-Star proc odds: 9.05% +/- 2.05%
    (5)
    Last edited by Silverbane; 09-28-2015 at 03:02 PM. Reason: Update