One of the biggest reasons that FFXI was a success whereas FFXIV wasn't is because the gaming space was much different back then. Not everyone had broadband internet yet, there weren't a lot of MMOs out(WoW didn't hit 'til a few years later), and so there was room for FFXI to be a hit. FFXIV doesn't have that luxury, although it does have the chance to come up from the ashes, as the MMOs that people thought were gonna be gangbusters are only slightly lukewarm(DC Universe, APB, Rift, etc.).

As for the game itself if patch 1.19 is any indicator, the game is gonna do just fine. I already have 3 new buddies signing up 'cause of the changes.