Challenge accepted; and a pointless one at that. With this craft, I can confirm that it's strictly stats, and that you might need to reconsider the rotation that you're using:
I crafted an Aurum Regis Texture Hammer (recipe level 60) and level 60, with an HQ level 52 main hand and a level 53 off-hand (for good measure), because according to your logic, I shouldn't be able to get anywhere near 94% quality, let alone 17% considering the 8, yes, 8 whole levels of difference, between my tools, and the level of the craft. If you think that I should try again with a level 60 belt and rings (those are the two-star green items that you see in the picture), then I can, but that invalidates your point that it's the tools' item level that are the important part.
P.S. I didn't cheat by using HQ materials; all of the materials used in that craft were normal quality.
P.S.S. I just went and tried a level 57 recipe (Titanium Battleaxe -- I don't trust my stats to do a level 60 craft) with the level 52 main hand and level 53 off-hand, using my old artisan i60 gear from level 50 (I kept it for nostalgia purposes), minus accessories and belt (I used unmelded holy cedar HQ accessories, and a holy rainbow apron HQ melded with a piety III materia for spirit bonding purposes). According to your item level theory, I shouldn't be able to get anywhere close to 17%? maybe? I was able to push the quality all the way up to 81% with enough steps to finish the craft. and it came out HQ.



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