Collectable Rotation Analysis

[TechnoTechie]

if it helps, I still have my old data I compiled in 3.01.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...sxHfKUW5jyGg0/

Note: the level 60 data points will be inaccurate as the amount of rarity gained per point of perception was increased for level 60 items around 3.05. I haven't gotten around to updating or adding more data points, as I surpassed the perception cap for 1-star items recently, and figured that was all I needed.

EDIT: I forgot to add that all data points were using methodical appraisal only, as that is the base-line for everything else (x1.0). (115 * 0.9 = 103.5, the cap for impulsive appraisal when rounded down / discerning eye + (methodical at 115) = 172). The larger number is of course the perception (left side) and the smaller number is the amount of rarity gained from using methodical appraisal.

[TechnoTechie]

I got bored and decided to look over my data again and do some analysis.
There's about 100 perception between floor (80 per methodical) and ceiling (115 per methodical), meaning you will in general gain 1 more rarity per 3 perception; this doesn't take into account that there appears to be "tier-based progression" (gains of 1-2 rarity at each tier, with each tier being about 5-6 perception).

I'm tempted to say that it's a standard bell curve centered at 97.5 (halfway between 80 and 115), but I haven't done any exact statistical analysis. The data seems to support this as you seem to get more rarity per perception around that area as well.

I also went back and tried appraisals with almost bare minimum perception (35 perception) and still got 80 for a methodical appraisal, so we can assume that this is the absolute minimum you'll ever get on a methodical appraisal, and we know that the ceiling is 115 because you'll never get more than that on an unbuffed methodical appraisal.

[Loony_BoB]

Okay. I've spent two evenings clawing through this stuff, this is evening #3. I've been bored, don't look at me like that!

1. The only odd Methodical Appraisal results you can get are 113 and 115. All evens between 80 and 115 probably exist, although I've yet to touch 82 or 84.

2. There is no decimal when dealing with item rarity. How do I know this?
Cuprite - DE-MA-SM-MA-DE-MA - 459 result
Cuprite - SM-UC-MA-SM-UC-MA-MA-MA - 460 result, same stats.
Technically these two results should be exactly the same. They are not. What does this mean? Basically, you can't just calculate a DE-MA as 1.5 x a normal MA result (in this case that would mean 172.5). It's a DE-MA result, which gives a unique number for each tier of MA results (in this case 172). Is it always rounded down? No, sometimes it's rounded up, sometimes down, it's not consistent. So basically if you want to know the exact results, you have to have all the numbers known for each possible outcome. So that's what I've recorded and based all my calculations from.

3. What we *do* know is that every MA number has an associated DE-MA, IA and DE-IA number that will not change. So if you hit Cuprite for 115 MA and Adamantite Ore for 115 MA, you're going to get 172 for DE-MA, 103 for IA, 155 for DE-IA. The item and item level don't matter. What matters is the MA level you get. Same goes for mid-MA levels. If you hit for 112 MA, you can immediately know what results you will get for DE-ME, IA and DE-IA if you have them noted from a previous attempt.

4. I have got the numbers together for every MA level except 82 and 84.

5. I can accurately tell you how much perception you need to carry out each of 7 different rotations for Cuprite, and each of 5 different rotations for Adamantite/Chysahl. Yay!

I'm working on a spreadsheet to display all this information, which can be found here. I'm also working on a guide which can be found here.

EDIT: Oh, and you can basically assume numbers for the most part based on the others. I think it's quite assured that cell G7 will end up being 660, G15 and G16 will be 690, G18 will be 655, G19 and G20 will be 650. This is based on the pattern where the numbers increase by 5 or 10 for each increase in MA quality.