I'd say drop it when FFXV comes out. Why?

1. People like me have been holding out on a PS4 until there is a game they really REALLY want it for. For me, that is currently two games: The Tomorrow Children (an old friend is on the dev team for that and I promised) and FXV
2. If the marketing team at SE has any lick of sense, they'll offer XV bundled with a PS4, much like they did with the PS2 and X
3. Along with XV, they can bring back a PS3 to PS4 upgrade campaign to encourage people to switch once they've purchased their new console for XV