More Horizontal Progression please

[karateorangutang]

snip until.... after 8 years. I never played it myself but that is longer than most MMOs last these days. We could go through a very very long list of MMOs that actually failed before we ever even talk about SWG shutting down. And sustained a sub model.

Also since you either don't know or like to ignore important details. It failed AFTER being completely overhauled due to a disagreement within the business (as I understand without looking it up Lucas Arts and SOE had disagreement)

Which i corrected my wording later. If you wanna throw blame on me you should read the post i made later.

What i meant to say is the current form is a failure because its not what the audience wants. Please don't throw people under the bus for no reason. Would it make you feel better to say its failing? If its "failing" then it will soon be a "failure".

The game itself I'm speaking for. If the company made money off of it then it was a business success. Whether its beloved to you or not doesn't make it a current success. The word groovy was huge at one point to, but that's really irrelevant now. The current gamer is what matters. How long something was a success is immaterial in a market where the new shiny steals money from another company. The business model and game life was a success. The game is a failing in the "current" market.

^

These WoW clone MMOs last what 2-3 years before going f2p and dying? So lets average that to 2.5 years (30 months) $15x30 = $450 + say 2 $50 expansion.. $550 per player who stick around start to end?

Now lets look at the games who have kept players around under a sub model for over 12-15 years EQ and XI. (well focus on EQ because without looking XI's content was a bit more complicated mixing expansions and smaller paid content patches)

EQ = original + 21 expansions.

per player
expansions value = over $1,000
sub value = $2,900

Does your average WoW clone bring in a huge influx the 1st couple months that likely make up for the difference? Sure but lets then realize the cost of developing a new MMO vs adding an expansion to an existing one.

Then lets realize that apparently EQ/Xi were good enough to keep a lot of the SAME people engaged for YEARS. Where even the titan of these modern MMOs WoW has a almost 70% attrition rate after the 1st 20 months of playing (since I know someone will bitch below are the numbers). WoW stays afloat by being the equivalent of cigarettes/beer/weed to the MMO world. Everyone tries it then goes looking for something better.

40% quit after a year which goes up to ~70% at 600 days (about 20 months)


http://netgames2008.cs.wpi.edu/slides/chen-wow.pdf (scroll down to the sub time graph)

Just out of curiosity, since I'm in a rush to leave and I can't do the calculations. Are you also taking into account that at its peak XI had 500 k subscribers and that well into a year in of this game we are sitting somewhere in the vicinity of 700 k subscribers? This game is still young and quoting it like its already dying when its subs continue to grow just seems like alot of guesswork.

[Zarzak]

This game is still young and quoting it like its already dying when its subs continue to grow just seems like alot of guesswork.

No? Past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior. XIV is right on track to mimic every MMO that has released in the past 10 years. Likely the biggest reason it still does as well as it does is A. the name and B. the fact that PS3 and PS4 players don't have the options PC players do.

There's a drop off after an expansion, but let's try using real numbers when making a point instead of just making them up, shall we?

For more real numbers (already posted a couple posts ago)

70% of players quit after playing WoW for 20 months.

Once again most of WoW's success would be attributed to unparalleled marketing and recognition. WoW is the gateway MMO to new players these days. Equivalent to cigarettes, beer, and weed. Everyone tries it, matures, and quits the game to hopefully find something better. Sadly they instead run into a bunch of people trying to sell a game that has an expiration date printed in big bold letters "F2P failure INC" the day it releases.

[Ibi]

For more real numbers (already posted a couple posts ago)

70% of players quit after playing WoW for 20 months.

"70% of players quit after playing WoW for 20 months" is clearly not the same thing as "World of Warcraft loses almost 70% of its playerbase a month after an expansion", which were Nektulos-Tuor's words.

Also, while the data you have provided for that statement does look sound, there's no equivalent data to support your statement that "apparently EQ/Xi were good enough to keep a lot of the SAME people engaged for YEARS." Nor does it address the fact that the 30% of players that did not quit with 20 months (~1.7 million, based on a subscriber base of 5.6 million at the time the survey began) is a population several times larger than even EQ/XI's peak player bases.

It's possible that the number of players who have played WoW continuously for a period of years (however long you think that window should be for it to qualify) is at least as large as the peak population of EQ or XI, with the population of players that come and go, or play for a while but aren't retained, are simply a bonus on top of that for Blizzard.

[karateorangutang]

No? Past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior. XIV is right on track to mimic every MMO that has released in the past 10 years. Likely the biggest reason it still does as well as it does is A. the name and B. the fact that PS3 and PS4 players don't have the options PC players do..

Which is still a profitable venture and requires less design work. Building a whole new system along with a new IP costs alot more than using a system and modifying it slightly. They also have the benefit of using a IP that will draw a crowd to it regardless of quality ( which is sad to say).

I'm not arguing that its the best thing for the players, but honestly in a industry where customers are a number how much does that matter when there are people buying?