More Horizontal Progression please

[Zarzak]

What you don't realize, is the popular game is short lived. Until the next "WOW" comes out and everyone leaves and flocks to it because its new and shiny. Now your game is dead. Meanwhile, the "Niche" game still has its same subscribers.

^

These WoW clone MMOs last what 2-3 years before going f2p and dying? So lets average that to 2.5 years (30 months) $15x30 = $450 + say 2 $50 expansion.. $550 per player who stick around start to end?

Now lets look at the games who have kept players around under a sub model for over 12-15 years EQ and XI. (well focus on EQ because without looking XI's content was a bit more complicated mixing expansions and smaller paid content patches)

EQ = original + 21 expansions.

per player
expansions value = over $1,000
sub value = $2,900

Does your average WoW clone bring in a huge influx the 1st couple months that likely make up for the difference? Sure but lets then realize the cost of developing a new MMO vs adding an expansion to an existing one.

Then lets realize that apparently EQ/Xi were good enough to keep a lot of the SAME people engaged for YEARS. Where even the titan of these modern MMOs WoW has a almost 70% attrition rate after the 1st 20 months of playing (since I know someone will bitch below are the numbers). WoW stays afloat by being the equivalent of cigarettes/beer/weed to the MMO world. Everyone tries it then goes looking for something better.

40% quit after a year which goes up to ~70% at 600 days (about 20 months)


http://netgames2008.cs.wpi.edu/slides/chen-wow.pdf (scroll down to the sub time graph)

In regards to SWG:

If servers are shutting down... then its a failure. Whether or not it was huge at one point is really irrelevant. Its failing because its not what an audience wants.

.... after 8 years. I never played it myself but that is longer than most MMOs last these days. We could go through a very very long list of MMOs that actually failed before we ever even talk about SWG shutting down. And sustained a sub model.

Also since you either don't know or like to ignore important details. It failed AFTER being completely overhauled due to a disagreement within the business (as I understand without looking it up Lucas Arts and SOE had disagreement)

[Hix]

WoW has 7 million subs right now. It has had at least 7 million subs for 10 years. EQ peaked at less than 500,000 subs. It would take EQ, at its peak, 14 years to equal one year of WoW. It would take EQ 140 years to equal 10 years of WoW. And actually the numbers are even worse for EQ because 7 million subs is WoW's current floor, while 500,000 subs was EQ's peak.

Keep subs is important but lets not pretend that EQ was a more successful game than WoW because of attrition rates.

[karateorangutang]

snip until.... after 8 years. I never played it myself but that is longer than most MMOs last these days. We could go through a very very long list of MMOs that actually failed before we ever even talk about SWG shutting down. And sustained a sub model.

Also since you either don't know or like to ignore important details. It failed AFTER being completely overhauled due to a disagreement within the business (as I understand without looking it up Lucas Arts and SOE had disagreement)

Which i corrected my wording later. If you wanna throw blame on me you should read the post i made later.

What i meant to say is the current form is a failure because its not what the audience wants. Please don't throw people under the bus for no reason. Would it make you feel better to say its failing? If its "failing" then it will soon be a "failure".

The game itself I'm speaking for. If the company made money off of it then it was a business success. Whether its beloved to you or not doesn't make it a current success. The word groovy was huge at one point to, but that's really irrelevant now. The current gamer is what matters. How long something was a success is immaterial in a market where the new shiny steals money from another company. The business model and game life was a success. The game is a failing in the "current" market.

^

These WoW clone MMOs last what 2-3 years before going f2p and dying? So lets average that to 2.5 years (30 months) $15x30 = $450 + say 2 $50 expansion.. $550 per player who stick around start to end?

Now lets look at the games who have kept players around under a sub model for over 12-15 years EQ and XI. (well focus on EQ because without looking XI's content was a bit more complicated mixing expansions and smaller paid content patches)

EQ = original + 21 expansions.

per player
expansions value = over $1,000
sub value = $2,900

Does your average WoW clone bring in a huge influx the 1st couple months that likely make up for the difference? Sure but lets then realize the cost of developing a new MMO vs adding an expansion to an existing one.

Then lets realize that apparently EQ/Xi were good enough to keep a lot of the SAME people engaged for YEARS. Where even the titan of these modern MMOs WoW has a almost 70% attrition rate after the 1st 20 months of playing (since I know someone will bitch below are the numbers). WoW stays afloat by being the equivalent of cigarettes/beer/weed to the MMO world. Everyone tries it then goes looking for something better.

40% quit after a year which goes up to ~70% at 600 days (about 20 months)


http://netgames2008.cs.wpi.edu/slides/chen-wow.pdf (scroll down to the sub time graph)

Just out of curiosity, since I'm in a rush to leave and I can't do the calculations. Are you also taking into account that at its peak XI had 500 k subscribers and that well into a year in of this game we are sitting somewhere in the vicinity of 700 k subscribers? This game is still young and quoting it like its already dying when its subs continue to grow just seems like alot of guesswork.

[Zarzak]

This game is still young and quoting it like its already dying when its subs continue to grow just seems like alot of guesswork.

No? Past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior. XIV is right on track to mimic every MMO that has released in the past 10 years. Likely the biggest reason it still does as well as it does is A. the name and B. the fact that PS3 and PS4 players don't have the options PC players do.

There's a drop off after an expansion, but let's try using real numbers when making a point instead of just making them up, shall we?

For more real numbers (already posted a couple posts ago)

70% of players quit after playing WoW for 20 months.

Once again most of WoW's success would be attributed to unparalleled marketing and recognition. WoW is the gateway MMO to new players these days. Equivalent to cigarettes, beer, and weed. Everyone tries it, matures, and quits the game to hopefully find something better. Sadly they instead run into a bunch of people trying to sell a game that has an expiration date printed in big bold letters "F2P failure INC" the day it releases.

[Ibi]

For more real numbers (already posted a couple posts ago)

70% of players quit after playing WoW for 20 months.

"70% of players quit after playing WoW for 20 months" is clearly not the same thing as "World of Warcraft loses almost 70% of its playerbase a month after an expansion", which were Nektulos-Tuor's words.

Also, while the data you have provided for that statement does look sound, there's no equivalent data to support your statement that "apparently EQ/Xi were good enough to keep a lot of the SAME people engaged for YEARS." Nor does it address the fact that the 30% of players that did not quit with 20 months (~1.7 million, based on a subscriber base of 5.6 million at the time the survey began) is a population several times larger than even EQ/XI's peak player bases.

It's possible that the number of players who have played WoW continuously for a period of years (however long you think that window should be for it to qualify) is at least as large as the peak population of EQ or XI, with the population of players that come and go, or play for a while but aren't retained, are simply a bonus on top of that for Blizzard.

[karateorangutang]

No? Past behavior is a good indicator of future behavior. XIV is right on track to mimic every MMO that has released in the past 10 years. Likely the biggest reason it still does as well as it does is A. the name and B. the fact that PS3 and PS4 players don't have the options PC players do..

Which is still a profitable venture and requires less design work. Building a whole new system along with a new IP costs alot more than using a system and modifying it slightly. They also have the benefit of using a IP that will draw a crowd to it regardless of quality ( which is sad to say).

I'm not arguing that its the best thing for the players, but honestly in a industry where customers are a number how much does that matter when there are people buying?

[Nektulos-Tuor]

^

These WoW clone MMOs last what 2-3 years before going f2p and dying? So lets average that to 2.5 years (30 months) $15x30 = $450 + say 2 $50 expansion.. $550 per player who stick around start to end?

Now lets look at the games who have kept players around under a sub model for over 12-15 years EQ and XI. (well focus on EQ because without looking XI's content was a bit more complicated mixing expansions and smaller paid content patches)

EQ = original + 21 expansions.

per player
expansions value = over $1,000
sub value = $2,900

Does your average WoW clone bring in a huge influx the 1st couple months that likely make up for the difference? Sure but lets then realize the cost of developing a new MMO vs adding an expansion to an existing one.

Then lets realize that apparently EQ/Xi were good enough to keep a lot of the SAME people engaged for YEARS. Where even the titan of these modern MMOs WoW has a almost 70% attrition rate after the 1st 20 months of playing (since I know someone will bitch below are the numbers). WoW stays afloat by being the equivalent of cigarettes/beer/weed to the MMO world. Everyone tries it then goes looking for something better.

40% quit after a year which goes up to ~70% at 600 days (about 20 months)


http://netgames2008.cs.wpi.edu/slides/chen-wow.pdf (scroll down to the sub time graph)



.... after 8 years. I never played it myself but that is longer than most MMOs last these days. We could go through a very very long list of MMOs that actually failed before we ever even talk about SWG shutting down. And sustained a sub model.

Also since you either don't know or like to ignore important details. It failed AFTER being completely overhauled due to a disagreement within the business (as I understand without looking it up Lucas Arts and SOE had disagreement)

SWG couldn't afford getting a thing from Lucas Arts or Disney to remake the game. Lucas Arts also ordered SWG to "change" to be more like WOW. Which made it lose suddenly half its subscribers in the CU, then half again in the NGE.

SWG Pre-CU had a GOOD Player base for its time. It was at the time MMOs were NOT popular like they are now.

SWG literally was forced to be changed by Lucas. SWG wasn't shut down though because it was failing, Sony just wouldn't fork over the millions to fight with SWTOR.

SWG no longer had the "Rights" for Sony to have the game.
SWTOR paid to make it so SWG wouldn't have the rights to the game anymore so it would be the only Starwars MMO.

When they finally lost the rights, SWG started becoming an amazing game, even in the NGE. You could have full atmospheric flight! Full on atmospheric battles. So much more to do then SWTOR ever did. Way better of a game.

Anyways, that is all in the past now.

Side note, SWG was finally shut down because SWTOR was being released, and LA didn't want folks confused as to which one they were playing, so they refused to renew SOE's license.

Yep!


World of Warcraft loses almost 70% of its playerbase a month after an expansion. Then gains it all back after a new expansion. That is VERY bad.. FFXIV is the same way actually. So many people are just.. bored.

[Ibi]

World of Warcraft loses almost 70% of its playerbase a month after an expansion.

There's a drop off after an expansion, but let's try using real numbers when making a point instead of just making them up, shall we?

As you can see in this post, the largest drop off World of Warcraft has ever had from the peak after an expansion's release was for Warlords of Draenor (the current expansion).

That drop off was 39% in the first three months, and a further 15% (based on the peak) in the three months after that, for a total of 44% in six months, rather than 70% in a single month that you stated.

Burning Crusade and Wrath of the Lich King both increased their subscriber numbers over the duration of the expansion, Cataclysm had a -5% in the first 4.5 months, and -24% over the length of the expansion (with the last ten months of the expansion adding no new content) and Mists of Pandaria was -4% in the first three months, -32% at the lowest point of the expansion (with the last thirteen months of the expansion adding no new content).

[Iagainsti]

World of Warcraft loses almost 70% of its playerbase a month after an expansion. Then gains it all back after a new expansion. That is VERY bad.. FFXIV is the same way actually. So many people are just.. bored.

I'd like to point out that 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot.