Real Math and Sq Enix Math - the twain shall never meet

[Mallea]

I'm essentially a full time gatherer/crafter. I've noticed a significant disparity in the stated "success" percentages and real outcomes. Not enough room here to post in detail (I've kept a log for both crafting and gathering and have statistically significant numbers), but someone at SE needs to take a course in Binomial Probability. After farming 990 Rosewood logs today, that 93% success rate was suspiciously close to 78% -- and the likelihood of three successive failures (at 93%) is astronomical; yet, it happened seven times. Still love the game heaps, but how about revamping the crafting/gathering interface with accurate percentages!

[MilesSaintboroguh]

Welcome to RNG

[Ashelia_Ferron]

You know that random is random right? Even if it's statistically less likely to happen, it CAN happen.

[Kyros]

You know that random is random right? Even if it's statistically less likely to happen, it CAN happen.

That's the thing tho. This isn't true random. It's very hard to implement true randomness using computer algorithms. For all we know their RNG seed/algorythm could be completely bonkers, and the only way to verify it is with massive, and exhaustive tests.

In fact, I remember a dev once talking about their RNG seed having issues with repeats: It tended to repeat itself a bit too much. They said they patched it up a bit, but from the looks of it it's still repeating itself a lot. This is why it's rather common to see strings of 5x fails when statistically that should only happen once in a blue moon.

[Bishop81]

This is why it's rather common to see strings of 5x fails when statistically that should only happen once in a blue moon.

You are assuming the 5x fails in a roll will be "spaced out" ... that's not how randomness works.

[Kyros]

You are assuming the 5x fails in a roll will be "spaced out" ... that's not how randomness works.

No actually, that is exactly how it should work, averaged over time. You can calculate how often does X scenario should present itself fairly easily. If it isn't behaving as expected, then your seed has a bias and is not truly random.

Also, RNG seeds can have quirks to them, because again: not truly random. Take for example this number sets: 25 50 75, and 50 50 50 repeat over and over. Both average to 50 and you can say that both are truly random, but one of them is not really functioning as a RNG for our purposes.

[Bishop81]

No actually, that is exactly how it should work, averaged over time. You can calculate how often does X scenario should present itself fairly easily. If it isn't behaving as expected, then your seed has a bias and is not truly random.

Also, RNG seeds can have quirks to them, because again: not truly random. Take for example this number sets: 25 50 75, and 50 50 50 repeat over and over. Both average to 50 and both and you can say that both are truly random, but one of them is not really functioning as a RNG for our purposes.

Random by definition means "no pattern". Having the 5x fails in a roll spaced out as a characteristic would be a pattern.

[Mallea]

Yup, I get it. I'm not really biotching about it -- I love the crafting/gathering in this game too much to get terribly upset, I just find it remarkable, random or not, that a 93% chance at success can fail sequentially as frequently as it does. It hints that this so-called randomness is weighted markedly against the player. On the flipside, when gathering, I'm so terribly pleased that 15% HQ chance is off in favor of the player! Too bad the same cannot be said on the crafting side.

[Malevicton]

Cognitive Bias

[Ashkendor]

That 93% chance to succeed still has a 7% chance to fail every time.

Welcome to the world of RNGesus.