Real Math and Sq Enix Math - the twain shall never meet

[Lyrinn]

I'm no math expert here, but, isn't there an essential difference between a 93% chance of success, and a 93% rate of success?

Rate is just chance averaged over many trials.

[Seig345]

Rate is just chance averaged over many trials.

Yes, the point where I'm confused is, the system's 93% is referring to individual chance, not a rate of success, yet the OP refers to it as a rate, and then accuses the rate of being suspiciously closer to 78% than 93%. Seems like a mismatch of terminology here.

As infuriating as it is to fail on a 93% chance of success, I always took it to mean that an RNG was picking a number from 1-100, and that I'd succeed if it picks any number from 1-93, but 94-100 = failure. Random unfortunately means that even if the odds are in your favor, it doesn't mean you're guaranteed more successes than failures (although even in the OP's example, a 78% rate of success is still more successes than failures). As far as homework grades go, 93% is great, but if you go into RNG with that thought process, you're bound to be frustrated.

[Lyrinn]

Yes, the point where I'm confused is, the system's 93% is referring to individual chance, not a rate of success, yet the OP refers to it as a rate, and then accuses the rate of being suspiciously closer to 78% than 93%. Seems like a mismatch of terminology here

As infuriating as it is to fail on a 93% chance of success, I always took it to mean that an RNG was picking a number from 1-100, and that I'd succeed if it picks any number from 1-93, but 94-100 = failure. Random unfortunately means that even if the odds are in your favor, it doesn't mean you're guaranteed more successes than failures (although even in the OP's example, a 78% rate of success is still more successes than failures). As far as homework grades go, 93% is great, but if you go into RNG with that thought process, you're bound to be frustrated..

It's frustrating because of basic statistics - Law of Large Numbers says the rate will trend towards the expected value over a large sample size. When you do take a large sample and it's not remotely close to the expected value, it makes you wonder if something is up. Of course, this is where confidence intervals and stats tests come in to play but that's more work than anyone is willing to put in.