The "checking launcher version" window before is still showing same as it usually does, so it's probably an update to the launcher that we're not able to get, but it still shows the same version number so the "pre-launcher" check loads the version we already have. They can change the launcher version number to see if that can help the issue. It's ffxivupdater.exe that won't run, not the launcher updater. I may be wrong, but that's what it looks like from what I'm seeing each time I try.