How does goblin lottery work?

[Peka]

It's frustrating to craft thes fine new pieces of gear, and then not being able to cap them out with materia because no grade V materia exist.

It has been said that mutamix materia transmutaion (also known as goblin lottery) is currently the only way to obtain grade V materia.
Personally i have wasted about 100 grade IV materia, putting in 5x grade IV without seeing even a single grade V result.

I would like to know if the chance is just extremely low, or if there is a certain way this has to be done to obtain a higher grade than you put in?
I have also never seen grade IIIs result in a grade IV result earlier on, though i tried this many hundreds of times as well.

[NJA]

Just a very, very low probability unfortunately.

[morerancor]

I finally got one today, it has a special animation so of course I got so excited. Ended up with an elemental. I trade in 3 mind and 2 dex IV's. Maybe my 25th try.

[ImDingDing]

Just check the MB to see how many tier V are out there you will get an idea how low the % is.

[Dre777]

I wasted a lil more then that and didnt get anything either. So I just bought a comp v materia for 900k. Lol. After 3.05 patch I put it on mb for 10mil just to be funny.

[Snugglebutt]

Wish people would stop saying it doesn't exist because it is very much a fact it does and can be obtained even if very low chance to both get one from the trade-in plus that one being one want. People really should stop over-exaggerating their comments on here. It is very annoying.

[Thrustie]

Wish people would stop saying it doesn't exist because it is very much a fact it does and can be obtained even if very low chance to both get one from the trade-in plus that one being one want. People really should stop over-exaggerating their comments on here. It is very annoying.

Every comment in this post says it's a very low probability.... That is not exaggeration...

[PirateCat]

That was probably a reference to the OP's comment:

no grade V materia exist.

Which is either an exaggeration, or it's an entirely plausible statement that there aren't any for sale on her world's MB. (I think Balmung has seen like three sell total and there was maybe one listed last I checked.)

[StouterTaru]

I burned through the last of my TIV junk that I stockpiled for months before HW. Started with 350+ junk TIV, ended with 62 of the good TIV materia, no TV at all. Overall I've gone through more than 600 TIV and received zero TV materia.

[Allfy]

I dabbled quite a bit in the goblin lottery and found out something of great help when trying to get specific outputs (or rather avoid certain ones).

You cannot receive an output of any materia put into the lottery. (i.e. put in 5 different elemental and you only have a chance at 1 elemental output and everything other than.)

Also, putting in grade III materia seems to have an output ratio of about 10% to grade IV. In my experience it is 5% or less for IV > V.

I personally have never seen a lower grade materia output if you have all the same level put in. In about... 1000 materia spent or so (200 attempts) I saw 3 grade V come out. 1 elemental, 1 Craftsmanship, and 1 Crit. Always use the largest variant of materia inputs you can to lower the chance of a bad output and you'll see much more favorable results.