I personally like that the game doesn't play itself by telling you everything you have to do to master it. Every factor that effects synthesis outcome is detectable through testing, and as such not strictly hidden. Speculation can only establish what factors need to be tested for. I haven't really done much systematic testing myself, but from what I have done I think it's safe to say that
tools doesn't have any effect beyond their stats.
Position doesn't have a statistically significant effect, meaning that the noticeable effect (if any) is to small to rule out chance. It is possible that
moon phases is the cause of the observed systematic rise and fall in difficulty and HQ. There is
however a good chance that this curve has a starting point related to the moon and date choices you make in the character generation and as such isn't applicable to everyone. Anyway the first step would be to take notes on how success rate, HQ percentage, durability & quality loss and possibly synthesis advancement change with the different moon phases. If anyone have done so, I would very much like to know
