Collectable Rotation Analysis

[Loony_BoB]

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1zWo...MmOo4/viewform

If any gatherers have time, I'd really appreciate it if they fill out this form while doing their gathering runs. I'm trying to establish the exact perception required for each of the various rotations that are out there, so people can establish based on their perception what the best rotation is for them at each type of node, and also how much additional perception they might require in order to "upgrade" their rotation at a node.

[TechnoTechie]

if it helps, I still have my old data I compiled in 3.01.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...sxHfKUW5jyGg0/

Note: the level 60 data points will be inaccurate as the amount of rarity gained per point of perception was increased for level 60 items around 3.05. I haven't gotten around to updating or adding more data points, as I surpassed the perception cap for 1-star items recently, and figured that was all I needed.

EDIT: I forgot to add that all data points were using methodical appraisal only, as that is the base-line for everything else (x1.0). (115 * 0.9 = 103.5, the cap for impulsive appraisal when rounded down / discerning eye + (methodical at 115) = 172). The larger number is of course the perception (left side) and the smaller number is the amount of rarity gained from using methodical appraisal.

[TechnoTechie]

I got bored and decided to look over my data again and do some analysis.
There's about 100 perception between floor (80 per methodical) and ceiling (115 per methodical), meaning you will in general gain 1 more rarity per 3 perception; this doesn't take into account that there appears to be "tier-based progression" (gains of 1-2 rarity at each tier, with each tier being about 5-6 perception).

I'm tempted to say that it's a standard bell curve centered at 97.5 (halfway between 80 and 115), but I haven't done any exact statistical analysis. The data seems to support this as you seem to get more rarity per perception around that area as well.

I also went back and tried appraisals with almost bare minimum perception (35 perception) and still got 80 for a methodical appraisal, so we can assume that this is the absolute minimum you'll ever get on a methodical appraisal, and we know that the ceiling is 115 because you'll never get more than that on an unbuffed methodical appraisal.

[Loony_BoB]

Okay. I've spent two evenings clawing through this stuff, this is evening #3. I've been bored, don't look at me like that!

1. The only odd Methodical Appraisal results you can get are 113 and 115. All evens between 80 and 115 probably exist, although I've yet to touch 82 or 84.

2. There is no decimal when dealing with item rarity. How do I know this?
Cuprite - DE-MA-SM-MA-DE-MA - 459 result
Cuprite - SM-UC-MA-SM-UC-MA-MA-MA - 460 result, same stats.
Technically these two results should be exactly the same. They are not. What does this mean? Basically, you can't just calculate a DE-MA as 1.5 x a normal MA result (in this case that would mean 172.5). It's a DE-MA result, which gives a unique number for each tier of MA results (in this case 172). Is it always rounded down? No, sometimes it's rounded up, sometimes down, it's not consistent. So basically if you want to know the exact results, you have to have all the numbers known for each possible outcome. So that's what I've recorded and based all my calculations from.

3. What we *do* know is that every MA number has an associated DE-MA, IA and DE-IA number that will not change. So if you hit Cuprite for 115 MA and Adamantite Ore for 115 MA, you're going to get 172 for DE-MA, 103 for IA, 155 for DE-IA. The item and item level don't matter. What matters is the MA level you get. Same goes for mid-MA levels. If you hit for 112 MA, you can immediately know what results you will get for DE-ME, IA and DE-IA if you have them noted from a previous attempt.

4. I have got the numbers together for every MA level except 82 and 84.

5. I can accurately tell you how much perception you need to carry out each of 7 different rotations for Cuprite, and each of 5 different rotations for Adamantite/Chysahl. Yay!

I'm working on a spreadsheet to display all this information, which can be found here. I'm also working on a guide which can be found here.

EDIT: Oh, and you can basically assume numbers for the most part based on the others. I think it's quite assured that cell G7 will end up being 660, G15 and G16 will be 690, G18 will be 655, G19 and G20 will be 650. This is based on the pattern where the numbers increase by 5 or 10 for each increase in MA quality.

[Loony_BoB]

Okay...

Things I Still Don't Know

1. Can you one-shot reveal folklore items at 647 gathering? I'm told you can with 648.
2. What is the minimum perception requirement for 94 rarity increase when using Methodical Appraisal on a folklore item?

Assumption: 690 is the required perception to guarantee red scrip items using rotation #5 (SM-UC-IA-IA-IA-DE-UC-MA with SM in place of DE if any of the IA proc a DE)

[TechnoTechie]

Okay. I've spent two evenings clawing through this stuff, this is evening #3. I've been bored, don't look at me like that!

I think we're both just as bored! 3.1 please get here faster

1. The only odd Methodical Appraisal results you can get are 113 and 115. All evens between 80 and 115 probably exist, although I've yet to touch 82 or 84.
...
4. I have got the numbers together for every MA level except 82 and 84.

83, 85, and 87 are also possible results, as is 86, and if you want I will try to get data for 88/89; the only data point I have after 87 is for 90. As far as I know, it's impossible to get either 82 or 84 from testing various stats today.
Yes, I'm that bored. Bored enough (but also inspired by your work) that I even went and bought +perc food that grants +2, +3, +4, and +5 perception respectively, to test for absolute perception caps for levels 56, 58, 60, and 1-star folklore. I neglected level 59 items, but I'll go back and do that. I also found the absolute floor for level 56 items, and using this I will try to extrapolate floors and test them for the other items.
Knowing these caps, I feel like we can extrapolate other values for the other items, but I'll get around to trying this out later. The exact difference between ceiling and floor is 101 perception.

-level 56: 539 perception cap; 438 perception floor (80 on methodical appraisal; 439 perception was 83 on methodical)
-level 58: 563 perception cap
-level 60: 585 perception cap
-L60 1-star: 695 perception cap

2. There is no decimal when dealing with item rarity. How do I know this?
Cuprite - DE-MA-SM-MA-DE-MA - 459 result
Cuprite - SM-UC-MA-SM-UC-MA-MA-MA - 460 result, same stats.
Technically these two results should be exactly the same. They are not. What does this mean? Basically, you can't just calculate a DE-MA as 1.5 x a normal MA result. It's a DE-MA result, which gives a unique number for each tier of MA results. Is it always rounded down? No, sometimes it's rounded up, sometimes down, it's not consistent. So basically if you want to know the exact results, you have to have all the numbers known for each possible outcome. So that's what I did.
3. What we *do* know is that every MA number has an associated DE-MA, IA and DE-IA number that will not change. So if you hit Cuprite for 115 MA and Adamantite Ore for 115 MA, you're going to get 172 for DE-MA, 103 for IA, 155 for DE-IA. The item and item level don't matter. What matters is the MA level you get. Same goes for mid-MA levels. If you hit for 112 MA, you can immediately know what results you will get for DE-ME, IA and DE-IA if you have them noted from a previous attempt.

I think what is happening is that there is some hidden decimal number for the base amount of the methodical appraisal that rounds to produce each of those results, probably something like this:
(MA = x1.0 potency; DE + MA = x1.5 potency; Impulsive = x0.9 potency; Impulsive + DE = x1.35 potency)

If we assume proper rounding at the tenth's digit (round down at 4, round up at 5), then these numbers seem to line up

5. I can accurately tell you how much perception you need to carry out each of 7 different rotations for Cuprite, and each of 5 different rotations for Adamantite/Chysahl. Yay!

I'm working on a spreadsheet to display all this information, which can be found here. I'm also working on a guide which can be found here.

EDIT: Oh, and you can basically assume numbers for the most part based on the others. I think it's quite assured that cell G7 will end up being 660, G15 and G16 will be 690, G18 will be 655, G19 and G20 will be 650. This is based on the pattern where the numbers increase by 5 or 10 for each increase in MA quality.

nice work!

Okay...

Things I Still Don't Know

1. Can you one-shot reveal folklore items at 647 gathering? I'm told you can with 648.
2. What is the minimum perception requirement for 94 rarity increase when using Methodical Appraisal on a folklore item?

Assumption: 690 is the required perception to guarantee red scrip items using rotation #5 (SM-UC-IA-IA-IA-DE-UC-MA with SM in place of DE if any of the IA proc a DE)

Testing for these next!
EDIT: yes, you can one-shot clear with 648; testing 647 next. Also as far as 94 rarity from methodical, initial calculation suggests around 631-633 perception (I noticed 475-477 perception gave 94 on methodical with a cap of 539, a difference of 62-64. the one-star cap being 695: 695 - 62 = 633; 695 - 64 = 631) I will gear for this and try on the next set of nodes.

EDIT 2: for the legendary nodes: 647 is a 1-shot clear; 631 perception was 94 on methodical, 141 on methodical with discerning eye, 84 on impulsive (ran out of attempts to try impulsive + discerning eye). My data suggests that the lowest possible might be 630, so I can try again with 630 but that might require some remelding, and 629 would drop it down to 92 if my calculations are correct.

EDIT 3: Just tested methodical again with 630 and 634 perception on folklore node: both came out to 94

EDIT 4: Tried again with 629 and 635 perception. 629 was 92 on methodical; 635 was 96 on methodical.

[Loony_BoB]

83, 85, and 87 are also possible results, as is 86, and if you want I will try to get data for 88/89; the only data point I have after 87 is for 90. As far as I know, it's impossible to get either 82 or 84 from testing various stats today.

I've opened up these numbers on the sheet (they're all there, just hidden). In case it isn't obvious, when dealing with the sheet...

Perception
Green = Confirmed number
Yellow = Assumed number based on information provided and patterns in other numbers

Rarity Increases
Green = Confirmed number
Light Blue = Predicted number

Rarity at completion
Dark blue = Rotation can be used for blue scrips
Red = Rotation can be used for red scrips
Yellow = Rotation can be used for counterfoil
Green = Rotation can be used for 8/8 quality on ephemeral node

Yes, I'm that bored. Bored enough (but also inspired by your work) that I even went and bought +perc food that grants +2, +3, +4, and +5 perception respectively, to test for absolute perception caps for levels 56, 58, 60, and 1-star folklore. I neglected level 59 items, but I'll go back and do that. I also found the absolute floor for level 56 items, and using this I will try to extrapolate floors and test them for the other items.
Knowing these caps, I feel like we can extrapolate other values for the other items, but I'll get around to trying this out later. The exact difference between ceiling and floor is 101 perception.

-level 56: 539 perception cap; 438 perception floor (80 on methodical appraisal; 439 perception was 83 on methodical)
-level 58: 563 perception cap
-level 60: 585 perception cap
-L60 1-star: 695 perception cap

Nice! I'll try to get these added in at some point today. I can't post while I'm at work but I can still view threads, so I'll do it while that's going on and reply when I get back home.

I think what is happening is that there is some hidden decimal number for the base amount of the methodical appraisal that rounds to produce each of those results, probably something like this:
(MA = x1.0 potency; DE + MA = x1.5 potency; Impulsive = x0.9 potency; Impulsive + DE = x1.35 potency)

If we assume proper rounding at the tenth's digit (round down at 4, round up at 5), then these numbers seem to line up

Yeah, I did consider that. But given that it doesn't add up for the two rotations mentioned (when dealing with Cuprite) despite it being 4x MA for both (one is 4x MA directly, the other 2x 1.5 MA and 1x MA), it's clear that once you push in the number, decimals are not retained in any way. Effectively it must be rounding up/down at the point of action, rather than just hiding any decimal numbers within the rarity value of the item you're working on. So it's important to keep this in mind. ^^

nice work!

Thankya. Same to you!

Testing for these next!
EDIT: yes, you can one-shot clear with 648; testing 647 next. Also as far as 94 rarity from methodical, initial calculation suggests around 631-633 perception (I noticed 475-477 perception gave 94 on methodical with a cap of 539, a difference of 62-64. the one-star cap being 695: 695 - 62 = 633; 695 - 64 = 631) I will gear for this and try on the next set of nodes.


EDIT 2: for the legendary nodes: 647 is a 1-shot clear; 631 perception was 94 on methodical, 141 on methodical with discerning eye, 84 on impulsive (ran out of attempts to try impulsive + discerning eye). My data suggests that the lowest possible might be 630, so I can try again with 630 but that might require some remelding, and 629 would drop it down to 92 if my calculations are correct.

EDIT 3: Just tested methodical again with 630 and 634 perception on folklore node: both came out to 94

EDIT 4: Tried again with 629 and 635 perception. 629 was 92 on methodical; 635 was 96 on methodical.

Awesome! We now have confirmed numbers for everything when it comes to gathering requirements, and safely assumed numbers for all perception requirements (would be nice to get them confirmed, I might try your food method later on to get this done).

That leaves just the 82/83/84/85/87 numbers to be confirmed for ME, DE-ME, IA and DE-IA... although I should probably note that at this moment they are mostly irrelevant for Cuprite onwards, but it would be nice to have accurate calculations for future reference. It'd at least be interesting for the sake of getting certain results (eg. if you want 3/8 instead of 8/8) on ephemerals.

[TechnoTechie]

I've opened up these numbers on the sheet (they're all there, just hidden). In case it isn't obvious, when dealing with the sheet...

Did someone confirm an 82? I could not get this at all on a level 56 item; will try to see if I get it while confirming the floors for the other level items.

Perception
Green = Confirmed number
Yellow = Assumed number based on information provided and patterns in other numbers

Rarity Increases
Green = Confirmed number
Light Blue = Predicted number

Rarity at completion
Dark blue = Rotation can be used for blue scrips
Red = Rotation can be used for red scrips
Yellow = Rotation can be used for counterfoil
Green = Rotation can be used for 8/8 quality on ephemeral node

That definitely adds sheds some light on the colors! I'll try to help you out with some data points for the yellow.

Yeah, I did consider that. But given that it doesn't add up for the two rotations mentioned (when dealing with Cuprite) despite it being 4x MA for both (one is 4x MA directly, the other 2x 1.5 MA and 1x MA), it's clear that once you push in the number, decimals are not retained in any way. Effectively it must be rounding up/down at the point of action, rather than just hiding any decimal numbers within the rarity value of the item you're working on. So it's important to keep this in mind. ^^

Yea, that was my suspicion: that it uses decimal numbers for the base, and then the appraisal numbers themselves get converted to flat integers when they get tallied.

That leaves just the 82/83/84/85/87 numbers to be confirmed for ME, DE-ME, IA and DE-IA... although I should probably note that at this moment they are mostly irrelevant for Cuprite onwards, but it would be nice to have accurate calculations for future reference. It'd at least be interesting for the sake of getting certain results (eg. if you want 3/8 instead of 8/8) on ephemerals.

These numbers will definitely be useful for when 2-star items are released and if there are some lower level numbers that we need to aim for. It's definitely relevant for people that are still leveling their gatherers though, and definitely useful if you're aiming for say, duskborne aethersand (all of those drac pots and 1-star foods... ><) on an ephemeral node and don't care for dawnborne/landborne/leafborne.

Collecting data today has led me to the conclusion that everything is in tiers that change every 4-perception. This makes sense for the 101 perception gap between floor and ceiling as 26 tiers later (from the top of the floor tier, to the bottom of the ceiling tier), you're there at the top.

[TechnoTechie]

I think it says something when collecting this data has been the most fun I've had in this game in months. I now have a complete map of perception ranges for level 56 item appraisals in my data sheet. That 4-perception tier idea was mostly true, with the exception of 2 outliers... the 102 tier (5 points of perception), and 113 tier (9 points of perception)... I wonder if these are different for the other items.

I'm going to start working on using this to determine floors for the other items, and I won't map the other item levels yet other than floors unless you need me to confirm something or I get super bored again ^^

EDIT: I'm bad at maths. it's actually a 5-perception tier from oh say, 484 - 488 because you need to count 484 also (with 485, 486, 487, 488 makes 5) >< so, every 5 perception or so you can expect a change in your appraisals.

[Loony_BoB]

So I forgot that some guys and I were having a night out last night so everything I thought I was gonna do didn't get done. xD Oops.

Here, in the meantime, have this sheet of raw data from the form in the OP: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing