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  1. #1
    Player
    Phenidate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Windurst
    Posts
    344
    Character
    Autumn Lovelace
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 80
    This statement ignores the dry spells of cards - over 200 card draws they are around 17% sure, but in order you're seeing a lack of certain cards for on average around 19 draws.
    This could just be a bole, arrow, or balance you just won't see for two or three encounters. At all.

    Consider the fact that your chance of not drawing a given card is 5 in 6. To not draw a card in say, 3 draws is (5/6)^3 - which is about a 57% chance.
    (5/6)^19 is ~3%.

    These dry spells happened 14 times during the test - which is pretty dang crazy for something that only has around 3% chance of happening. Yesterday I apparently should have been playing the lottery.
    (0)

  2. #2
    Player
    Alahra's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Location
    Gridania
    Posts
    1,798
    Character
    Alahra Valkhir
    World
    Balmung
    Main Class
    Reaper Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Phenidate View Post
    This statement ignores the dry spells of cards - over 200 card draws they are around 17% sure, but in order you're seeing a lack of certain cards for on average around 19 draws.
    This could just be a bole, arrow, or balance you just won't see for two or three encounters. At all.

    Consider the fact that your chance of not drawing a given card is 5 in 6. To not draw a card in say, 3 draws is (5/6)^3 - which is about a 57% chance.
    (5/6)^19 is ~3%.

    These dry spells happened 14 times during the test - which is pretty dang crazy for something that only has around 3% chance of happening. Yesterday I apparently should have been playing the lottery.
    The game's RNG has always been seen as fairly swingy, as any serious Crafter or Gatherer will attest to. It seems to get "stuck" on certain number ranges at times. It probably has something to do with the way it's seeded.
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  3. #3
    Player
    Phenidate's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Windurst
    Posts
    344
    Character
    Autumn Lovelace
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 80
    Then that's an issue with how they're drawing random numbers then. Was there something wrong with the well tested Randoms that comes with nearly every programming language?
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  4. #4
    Player
    HeavensSword's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    338
    Character
    Marik Landzaat
    World
    Leviathan
    Main Class
    Dragoon Lv 70
    Quote Originally Posted by Phenidate View Post
    Then that's an issue with how they're drawing random numbers then. Was there something wrong with the well tested Randoms that comes with nearly every programming language?
    I'm willing to bet there's nothing wrong with how they generate random numbers...

    The problem you are having is that it is random.
    (0)