^ Indeed. If I had a strict DPS check to make, and a choice between:
A) 3% on the party [every 60 seconds for 30 seconds] for the duration of a fight, and
B) 5% on the party [after 120 seconds for 15 seconds] - RNG WILLING throughout the fight -
I'm going to take the consistent guaranteed benefit over something that only MAY happen, and not WILL happen.

I'm aware that doesn't account for the # of potential times you might draw the arrow and use it on a single DPS, but that doesn't change the fact that you may draw that card anywhere between NEVER and ALWAYS, shuffles included. There's no way out of that.

Now.. I'm not very good at math, but this also strikes me as worth noting. Comparing 3% for 30 seconds, against 5% for 15... well, it seems fairly clear to me yet again which I'd prefer if I had a choice. If the comparison were 3% for 15 and 5% for 15, Expanded Arrow would be a clear winner. This isn't the case though. 3% for for twice the duration of Expanded Arrow @ 5% is of ever so slightly more benefit on paper. So let's review: To produce an ideal card combination you require a minimum of 60 seconds, and a maximum of "you may never actually see it". Alternatively, even when using a card every 30 seconds without relying on Royal Road in any way, you're still not guaranteed to be presented an appropriate card in any given moment. With Fey wind I know what I'm getting and when I'm getting it.

I'm fully aware this is only addressing one buff, but it's time to stop pretending like AST buffs aren't gated by RNG and that all cards are equally useful at all times. It doesn't make AST broken per say - they just aren't standing on solid ground, and that's largely the source of so much disquiet.