Alexander token loot system using DF. How does it compare to COIL loot system. Math?

[fanservice]

I started farming alexander floors when i had 80 tomes left from my last purchase for the ilvl minimum.

I've done nothing but alexander for a day, and I'm at 1420 tomes.

Loot actually won: 1 spring for floor 4. Yesterday.

Mind you, we get 20 per clear, and an extra 40 for newcomers. I got 1340 tomes in intervals of 20 and fking 60.

Everyone being your competition is stupid.

at 1500 now

[Mikedizzy]

This new system is hard to say right now but my initial thoughts are:
since they are tokens...anyone running that Floor must need one of them so your chances of having something only you can roll on are almost non-existent now.
your only hope is that everyone is going for the other two pieces and not yours. I have been lucky and got all four of my tokens for the week but I can see having to run this a ton...that would fit how they want the content attacked...should always have lots of people in the DF for it.

[fanservice]

I'd call this loot system an easy way to make players sick of the content from how much people have to run it for a 12.5% chance to actually win something at worst.

Should be at least 3-4 tokens a kill so i could see 2 or 3 bolts/lenses drop at a time. That way even if I lose one, that's one less player able to roll on the second.


Thanks to weekly lockouts on loot, you're not going to get people who can't roll on anything queing up to do the floor for the hell of it. They're gone for the week once they get their drop, and another thirsty freshface takes that place in the DF.

[seida]

As it is now, it's not ideal I think. If 3 or 4 tokens dropped it would be much improved. You can only get one per floor anyway, but it would help relieve those who get stuck with horrible rng.

I mean, it's still better than before in the sense that you're not locked out once you've cleared it, but it does lead to a lot of grinding.

[DracotheDragon]

i keep saying it over and over on topics with the alex loot
but something similar to ravana and bismarck would of been cool, 1 random loot and 1 token loot, that way if your lucky your lucky if not well then you have a chance
and do what coils did if you go in with people who have cleared you can only go for the token (at least for now while its new)

[Garlyle]

Given that token drops are independant of each other and thus can roll the exact same result, the odds of seeing token a, with illustration of possible combos...
-1/9 (11%) chance of two of a given token dropping (a+a)
-4/9 (44%) chance of one of a given token dropping (a+b, a+c, b+a, c+a)
-4/9 (44%) chance of none of a given token dropping (b+b, c+c, b+c, c+b)
In other words, there's a 55% (well 55.55555...%) chance to see the token drop at all; with a higher total 'payout'. The simple form is - as you might expect - that there's an average of 2 of each token per 3 runs. But still, just over half chance of any given run having the token in question.

The bigger, more difficult to calculate comparison is on how many people are now going to be competing for that. In a worst case scenario, you can divide the majority of that by 8 if everyone is competing over the exact same token drop and only that token drop (Most likely to happen in Floor 4 with Armor tokens); even on a double case drop there's only about a 1/4 chance you get one of them.

So if you take those rates and divide them appropriately (44%/8 + 11%/4), in a worst case scenario of everyone seeking the exact same token, you have about an 8% chance of any given run ending in you, specifically getting that drop. However, that is a worst case scenario - the odds go up quickly for every player not competing against you for that specific drop. That 8% is an absolute minimum.

For the sake of comparison, the drop rate of a desired piece of gear in the Final Coil of Bahamut is anywhere from 7% to 14% depending on which turn and coffer it is (Most are 10-11%) at best, before calculating any player competition over a drop for whatever reason - these percentages are a maximum. This is also ignoring the previous raid format of drops being limited per week.

In other words, with a minimum to maximum range based on number of players also seeking that drop, the chances of you getting the loot you are after on any given run:
-In Alexander: 8%-55%
-In Coil: 1%-14%

[Synestra]

Looks like normal alex still promotes statics as you dont need to worry about losing a roll because your group will run it till everyone got their token for the week.

[ckc22]

Well weekly lockouts without actually receiving anything are excessively stupid so I don't really see a point in paying attention to that aspect.

IMO - I've done a lot of runs and gotten basically nothing. Without a static it's going to take a lot of hours every week to get the required tokens. Especially F4 where everything except chest tokens basically falls to the floor.

When you do get something it's not even exciting - in most cases you're not actually getting a piece for 2-4 weeks.

It's like receiving a savings bond instead of a birthday present.

[Ultimatecalibur]

I think the big thing right now is the fact that it is week one.

Currently everyone run every turn is rolling on nearly every piece. Next week everyone should have close to 4/5 of the 20 pieces they need and there will be fewer parties where 8 people roll need on both drops.

Currently everyone has a 12.5% chance of getting a piece per successful run and a ~4.16% chance of getting the specific piece they are looking for.

[Garlyle]

Currently everyone has a 12.5% chance of getting a piece per successful run and a ~4.16% chance of getting the specific piece they are looking for.

That's a pretty significant simplification that's also very wrong.

If you're to assume what you did - that you have a full group of everyone rolling on every token regardless (which will almost never happen), you have a 1/8th chance followed by a 1/7th chance for the remaining token, which functions as a 25% chance. And that's an at worst; if you're willing to accept anything, but there's other party members who aren't rolling on every piece for whatever reason (Already have drop, seeking specific drop), those rates go up.

If you're seeking a specific piece, I did the math back on page two, and in an absolutely worst case scenario (Everyone is seeking the exact same drop as you and only that drop), you have an 8% chance of any given run ending in you getting what you're after, or a 55% at highest if there is no competition whatsoever.