Alexander token loot system using DF. How does it compare to COIL loot system. Math?

[Brundlefly]

I know I saw a post yesterday about the loot system for Alexander being horrible and a lot of comments in support and against the OP's thoughts. However, I wanted to ask if someone has done the calculations on old and new looting system COIL vs Alex.

I haven't taken statistics for many years, so there's probably someone that can do the calculations faster and more accurately than me (Maybe it's already been done?). I'm also not taking into account some things like time (people won't need certain pieces on upcoming weeks) and that not everyone will be optimal gearing (they may not think about it and just loot whatever they can). I may also be missing some key information here that someone could include in their data.

So, anyone have some calculations they would like to share to show if the loot system is worse, same, or better than before? (Not just talk, but actual numbers.)

[Brundlefly]

Looking quickly at loot lists, here is what I found.
(Note: The numbers are going to be different when in a static. This post is more for DF.)

COIL:
Picked a random turn (turn11). Has 18 pieces and 2 can drop per run (Ignoring mats). So at there is a 1/9 chance the item will drop. (There may be more than one person wanting that gear as well, but for now we will assume they don't.)

Alexander:
Let's take A1 (floor 1). Has 3 items and 2 can drop per run. Let's consider worst possible scenario. Let's say everyone is going for optimal looting choice to gear their character fully in week 5. This means that most people would want 1 of the 3 pieces and to scrap the others. This in effect gives a 2/3 pieces drop with 8 people lotting on that 1 item if that is one of the one's that dropped.

[Risvertasashi]

So far, I've gotten 2 loot pieces, and a token towards my chest piece.

Now, if you're really lucky, in coil you can get up to 4 pieces in the first week (that you clear everything). As a healer, that wouldn't happen in practice because I would be sharing with the other healer, but it could happen for like a MNK or DRG or something.

In practice, it wasn't uncommon to get nothing in the first week of coil. In your calculations, don't forget that Alex can be run until everyone gets something; Coil could not.

All in all I'm pretty happy.

[Bojobear]

I'm good with it. Makes you decide what you want to lot for. Do you go for head or hands? Lens drops from a2 and a3. Do you go for most 190 pieces per week, that would mean you want bolts most of the time. The shaft only drops from A4, so if you want chest, its a 4 week farm. I do like that you can just do it till you get what you want, and the pool isn't so vast that you may never see it. Like with T10..19 drops for example...I know some people who still never saw the Tank boots after a hundred runs. With this. You get 2 pedals. you got boots. At most two weeks, or you can get two pedals from two floors, and get it same week. Just prioritize what you want and need first. Some pieces will take 4 weeks like chest, Legs minimum two weeks. The rest of the pieces can be done in a week with options for multiple loot per week. Like I got Head piece and two accessories yesterday.

[DoctorPepper]

Looking quickly at loot lists, here is what I found.
(Note: The numbers are going to be different when in a static. This post is more for DF.)

COIL:
Picked a random turn (turn11). Has 18 pieces and 2 can drop per run (Ignoring mats). So at there is a 1/9 chance the item will drop. (There may be more than one person wanting that gear as well, but for now we will assume they don't.)

Alexander:
Let's take A1 (floor 1). Has 3 items and 2 can drop per run. Let's consider worst possible scenario. Let's say everyone is going for optimal looting choice to gear their character fully in week 5. This means that most people would want 1 of the 3 pieces and to scrap the others. This in effect gives a 2/3 pieces drop with 8 people lotting on that 1 item if that is one of the one's that dropped.

You need to take into account that the same item can drop multiples in alexander. For example, both drops from floor 1 can be for the waist slot. The math is the same either way because the chance is there for all items but I just thought I would throw it out there because you mentioned scrapping items.

[Brundlefly]

You need to take into account that the same item can drop multiples in alexander. For example you both drops from floor 1 can be for the waist slot.

Oh thanks, I didn't even think about that or notice it during my runs yesterday.

[DoctorPepper]

It's difficult to determine the actual percentages of obtaining loot because the variable of who is rolling on what items changes from party to party. All you can determine as a definite value would be the chance that something you want will drop.

Basically the chance to see an item you want drop increases by a significant amount but the chance to actually obtain the item will vary from party to party based on loot preferences.

As far as I can tell, if 3 other players specifically want the loot you want and nothing else then your chances are the same as coil. If more than that want the same specific item as you then your chances are lower.

The other factor to consider however is that if you're willing to roll on any of the available loot that drops rather than a specific piece, you will have a slightly higher chance to obtain loot than you did before in coil picking specific items or jobs. If some people in the party are passing specific items then your chance will increase further by rolling on anything that drops.

[Bojobear]

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

[DoctorPepper]

...But the odds are better, cause multiples of the same thing can drop. Like in A4 last night, two shafts dropped same run

On the other side of the coin, there is also a chance that 2 of the same thing that you don't want can drop as well, 1/3 is the same as 2/6.

One thing I wasn't taking into consideration as well is that you need multiple items to get a piece of gear. That decreases the odds of actually getting a piece of equipment as well since you have to win 2-4 times instead of a single time.

[Galand]

You know what Iam fine running Alexander a few times to get the tokens I can trade in for the gear that I WANT, opposed to ONE CHANCE a week for the 10000th ninja chest in a row.