Results -9 to 0 of 4

Threaded View

  1. #1
    Player
    Lyrinn's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    1,524
    Character
    M'kael Jin
    World
    Tonberry
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 3

    Heart of the Crafter - Small sample data

    Number of goods that popped up while Crafter's Soul was active:

    0: 0
    1: 8
    2: 14
    3: 24
    4: 6

    Sample size: 52
    Mean: 2.54
    95% Confidence Interval: [2.3, 2.78]

    Probability you will lose CP: 0.423
    Probability you will gain CP: 0.577
    Expected Value: +5.77

    The results were very streaky as I was recording them, intially showing a very skewed 60:40 ratio for losing CP, all the way up to about 30 trials. On the whole, the ratio looks to be somewhere close to 50:50. Obviously, no solid conclusions can be drawn without a larger sample. Just sharing what I saw.

    Edit: These were tested on 1 star crafts, for clarification.
    Edit2: Irrelevant fun fact: Maker's Mark gives 12 stacks on 1 star crafts. It's pretty good.
    (1)
    Last edited by Lyrinn; 07-04-2015 at 01:58 AM.