Is it just me or are those good conditions...

[Soleillante]

I've noticed Hasty Touches missing a lot more on higher level crafts as well. And in the same vein, I've noticed Hasty Touches missing a lot less on lower level crafts. [...] - the higher level the item is compared to your level, the less Goods you get and the less Hasty Touch connects, and vice versa for lower level.

I've noticed this too—but I think it may be based on iLvl, rather than class level.

I'd been having this problem with Cobalt Ingots while I was leveling BSM/ARM (I only had WVR at 50 when HW came out), and as it turned out, I'd forgotten to make a replacement main-hand tool and was trying to hammer them out with ten-level-old gear. Once I fixed that, my Hasty Touch success rate jumped significantly. The same thing happened later with my CRP off-hand tool and Cedar Lumber.

(And yes, I keep better track now. I've learned my lesson.)

[Malakai]

Is RNG broken? I'm having a horrid time with Hasty Touch atm. Past 3 days actually. They need to adjust it from 80% success rate when you have Steady Hand II up to something more reasonable like 65% because that's what it feels like. Also In both crafting and gathering the 8%-20% fail rate seems like it has a 70% chance to succeed in NQ/failing as well. I missed about 20/60 while gathering on 92% gather rate nodes. And I've NQ'd over 30 things that were 89%-94% so far as well. It's really horrid ratio's lately. How does something with so small of a fail rate have so high of a chance to succeed? Also Precise Touch should just say 70% chance to fail if used without Steady Hand.
This is pretty much what I'm seeing constantly lately when trying to HQ items 55+ in HQ 55 gear with melds.

[LineageRazor]

Hasty Touch: 50% success chance. Steady Hand II: Adds 30% success chance. So, 80% success chance. That's it. Gear, level, none of it matters - mash Hasty with SH2 up, and you have an 80% chance of success, 20% chance of failure. It's spelled out right there on the abilities. Similarly, get yourself up to 72% quality, and you have a 28% chance of NQ. That's all.

80% is 80%. 72% is 72%. Don't speculate about "hidden" modifiers that may or may not be applied - that way lies madness and misdirection. SE spells out the odds of success EXPLICITLY on the abilities and progress bars - it is mindless paranoia to believe they are lying to us. Everyone has their runs of bad luck and runs of good luck - and guess which of those get posted to the forums? It can create the illusion that there's something deeper going on, but that's all it is, an illusion.

As for Good conditions becoming scarce at higher levels, that I cannot be so confident about. It's possible. Unlike the above, SE makes no promises as to what the odds of Good or Excellent conditions are, so it's at least possible that the proc rates have been lowered as recipe levels get higher.

[Nanga]

80% is 80%. 72% is 72%. Don't speculate about "hidden" modifiers that may or may not be applied - that way lies madness and misdirection. SE spells out the odds of success EXPLICITLY on the abilities and progress bars - it is mindless paranoia to believe they are lying to us. Everyone has their runs of bad luck and runs of good luck - and guess which of those get posted to the forums? It can create the illusion that there's something deeper going on, but that's all it is, an illusion.

Mmmhmmm. There's no "magic" or superstition behind it. 80% is 80%. Over a very long period of time, you succeed 80% of those RS/HT steps, using - ta da - 20% less CP than you would if you just used 100% guaranteed progress/quality builders. Since CP really ends up being the one thing that people run out of before having to complete a synth, in the long run it's better to save CP whenever possible.

[Aeyis]

Yes ofcourse. With an average of 20% chance to get a good, getting none in a 37 step synthesis is entirely within the realm of expectation.


My math sucks btw. Could you tell me how much this is, and if I have the right formula:

0.8^37

[Triston]

Yes ofcourse. With an average of 20% chance to get a good, getting none in a 37 step synthesis is entirely within the realm of expectation.


My math sucks btw. Could you tell me how much this is, and if I have the right formula:

0.8^37

That formula is correct, and the answer is .025%, which is of course absurd.

Reversing that, assuming the RNG wasn't just broken when you did your 37-step synthesis, 1-root37(0.05) = .0778

Ergo, if Aeyis isn't just exaggerating or misremembering or the RNG literally broke for that craft, I can say with 95% certainty that the chance of receiving a Good for the craft he attempted was 7.78% or less. Which is much lower than expected 20%.

[BlaiseArath]

37? I had a synth that went 40 steps and the condition never changed from normal. I only remember this because I've felt like the "Good Streaks" weren't as common anymore, and I remember raging to my friend in linkshell that I had gone 30 steps without a good, only to finish that synth at step 40, still without a single good, let alone excellent...

I definitely feel like synths where Good/Excellent pop frequently are less ... prevalent? in 51+ synths. I noticed from the get go.

[Aeyis]

Yeah after the first few times, I decided to count. Had one before that where I didnt get a good untill 34th or such, with another good 2-3 steps later. Fortunately I rarely make 1* items now and the other level 60 items dont seem effected by this.

It may well be that the level disposition (1* is 60+ in terms of level) is what is causing these effects.

[Sibyll]

I've had recipes where I got no condition changes for 30+ steps. I've had recipes where I got many.

Problem here is that adding a mechanic like the Whistle system makes it overly risky to use when you can't reliably get good procs, let alone 7. Heart of the [Crafter] doesn't inspire confidence because it's only a "chance" and only for 7 steps. I've yet to see any posts to dive into what this chance is and how it compares to the chance when it's not active. Furthermore, if it works anything like normal condition procs, 7 steps is in reality 4 good procs because you normally require a normal proc in between each good.