Dungeon Roulette Bias

[Callinon]

Specifically low level roulette.

Now I definitely understand that low level roulette wants to prioritize new players. That makes all the sense in the world. But I was a new player once, and I don't remember Tam Tara Deepcroft and Thousand Maws of Toto-rak being the only dungeons I EVER RAN, EVER.

Seriously. What's with these two specific dungeons? I've been doing a low level roulette every day for months to level my off jobs and I seem to be getting these two dungeons way more than I should.

I was actually thrilled yesterday to get a Haukke Manor (probably the third most common dungeon, but by an extreme margin).

Every time, there's someone in there for the first time. So I do get it. But just a little while ago I got Tam Tara in a party full of people on jobs. And so I have to conclude that nobody needed Tam Tara for story completion. From the look of their gear, Brayflox's Longstop would've been a much more appropriate dungeon to put us in.

I would seriously appreciate if SE could look into this. A dungeon roulette should be random. This does not feel random to me. Furthermore it doesn't help me learn my job when all I do is level 19 dungeons all the way up to level 50. I was in Stone Vigil the other day (manual queue) and I had to reread some of my cooldowns because I honestly couldn't remember what they did. I spend so much time in level 19 dungeons that actually having buttons to push was a new experience for me.

This is not how this is supposed to work.

[Twilite]

Roulette is a RNG system that probably does indeed check for new player status too.

As far as I know.. RNG systems tend to pick the middle number sometimes, and often the highest number. Multiple times.

Expert and High level is no different. I've ran AK HM in expert 5 days in a row.

[Seryl199]

It may make some difference depending on what class you queue with, I tend to get more lowbie dungeons on tank than healer. Also consider that not every player has access to every dungeon, while players are much more likely to have the lower tier dungeons unlocked regardless of level. I know it's frustrating to see the same dungeon over and over again (I got consecutive Tam Tara's weeks in a row), at the worst you could give yourself a break from roulettes. Roulette is going to keep placing you in the lowest common denominator, which unfortunately often ends up being level 20 or so dungeons.

[Callinon]

Roulette is going to keep placing you in the lowest common denominator, which unfortunately often ends up being level 20 or so dungeons.

But then you'd think I'd get Sastasha and Copperbell Mines at least as often as Tam Tara. Nope. While I do occasionally get Sastasha (twice in the last 8 weeks), I haven't seen Copperbell Mines in over a month of these. It's either Tam Tara or Toto-rak.

I also do understand how random systems work. But this seems statistically very unlikely.

As for Expert Roulette. I tend to discount aberrations in random samplings there because there are only three dungeons to choose from. Low level roulette has significantly more than that. I don't run high level roulette enough to form an opinion on that one, though I suspect it's probably subject to a similar problem.

[Cirgellon]

That is the very definition of random. Some people will roll the dice and get the same number 10 times in a row. If this didn't happen, then it wouldn't be completely random. It would be coded to make sure you didn't get repeats. That's the exact opposite of random.

I've been running low level roulette for a couple months and it's definately random. You'll see the lower level dungeons more just because there will always be a bigger pool of players for them.

As for statistics. You aren't even close to having the sample size to judge that.

[Amelia_Pond_Behemoth]

Roulettes make no sense to me. I've had instances where I got Tam Tara Normal and all of us were over 30, but under 50. I've gotten AKHM too many times that I ragequit until a week or two ago. Seriously, getting 5 in is statistically improbable unless the RNG is messed up, which considering gear drops, probably is.

[Bombast]

Seriously, getting 5 in is statistically improbable unless the RNG is messed up, which considering gear drops, probably is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Five, or fifty, or even 500 roulettes/gear drops are not enough to establish a 'statistically improbable 'occurrence.

[ShaneDawn]

It's not really random at all. The roulette checks which dungeon happens to need the specific classes the most and pair you with them. That's why you'll see so much Toto-rak, Tamtam, Qarn and Cutter's. I've also noticed the dungeons you get the most depend on your role.

Roulette was made to help people who queue without a full party find people to play with, even if it's old content. It's working as intended.

[Callinon]

I've also noticed the dungeons you get the most depend on your role.

I've seen this stated a few times and it never made any sense to me. Doesn't every dungeon need every role?

[MXMoondoggie]

I've seen this stated a few times and it never made any sense to me. Doesn't every dungeon need every role?

Certain dungeons are run less and need more roles filled than others which get groups easily. If you play Healer in roulette it seems like you get Toto-Rak a lot. Tanks often seem to get Aurum Vale.