Is there a Mr. Happy guide to weekly lottery?

[Magnesium02]

There is no guide to RNG, sadly. All you can do is pick a number and hope

[SpiritMuse]

I'm tired of 'winning' just 86 MGP every week. In fact I'm losing MGP every time because of 100 entry fee. Cactpot's weird setup of choosing winning numbers in exact reverse order makes it much more difficult to win, otherwise I'd have won many numbers.
Are there reliable, time-proven strategies of increasing chances to win the Jumbo Cactpot?

Can I just ask, what is this "reverse order" that people keep mentioning? You pick a number, then the winning number is compared to that and if the last digit matches (and then the second-to-last, and so on) then it's a win, right? Or does it match the last digit of your ticket with the first digit in the winning number?

[Nutz]

Can I just ask, what is this "reverse order" that people keep mentioning? You pick a number, then the winning number is compared to that and if the last digit matches (and then the second-to-last, and so on) then it's a win, right? Or does it match the last digit of your ticket with the first digit in the winning number?

They're referring to the fact that if the winning number were 1234 and you had 1235 you would win absolutely nothing, while 9234 would be second place. The reward system requires matching the lowest digits in order first, rather than matching any digits (ie. winning number is 1234, you have 1837 -- two matches by many lottery standards, but nothing as far as this game goes).

EDIT: also, just use the randomly generated number function to pick your numbers, or pick the same meaningful number like everyone else does. Using a random number every time I've won 3rd place once, and 4th a couple of times. It's all a wash since every number has an equal chance of winning.

[Kiara1]

I'm so happy i stumbled up on this thread. Gave me a good laugh

[Zophar]

Whoever said there's no such thing as a stupid question... was an idiot.

[HaelseMikiro]

If you win 3rd prize on the jumbo Cactpot once every 2 years, you are par for the course.
Average player with average luck will have the Honest Gillionaire title YEARS before High Roller.

[Caraway]

They're all teasing you because the answer to this question is the same answer to the real world lottery; there isn't one.

This is pure luck. Using the same numbers every time might give you a small increase in chances (.x% or lower) but beyond that? Just keep playing. Or don't. The bit of math up above with the 10,000 possibilities goes a little bit into the chances of winning, but it's even slimmer than that. It is highly unlikely you will win.

[NJA]

Using the same numbers every time might give you a small increase in chances (.x% or lower)

Not in the slightest. A random number doesn't care what you did last time.

[Niwashi]

There are 10,000 possibilities.

1 of them (0.01%) will win you 1st prize.
9 of them (0.09%) will win you 2nd prize.
90 of them (0.9%) will win you 3rd prize.
900 of them (9%) will win you 4th prize.
9000 of them (90%) will win you a consolation prize.

Those are your chances every time, no matter what number you pick.

Whether it's the same or different from any other numbers you've picked previous weeks is irrelevant. Whether it's the same or different from numbers that have won previous weeks is irrelevant. Also, a number like "0000" has exactly the same chances as a more random looking number like "3728". Because random numbers don't care about any of that. They'll always give the chances listed above.

Also, if you want to know whether the Cactpot ticket is worth buying, the formula is:
(A * 0.01%) + (B * 0.09%) + (C * 0.9%) + (D * 9%) + (E * 90%)
where A=amount of 1st prize, B=amount of 2nd prize, C=amount of 3rd prize, D=amount of 4th prize, E=amount of the consolation prize.

That will give you the average value of a ticket. If it's more than the 100 MGP it costs to buy one, then it's a worthwhile purchase. (It'll typically be closer to 500, but the exact value will vary according to what bonuses get added that week, so check the prize amounts after all the bonuses are added to them.)

[Purrfectstorm]

There's a 1 in 10,000 chance of winning 1st.
There's a 1 in 1,000 chance of winning 2nd.
There's a 1 in 100 chance of winning 3rd.
There's a 1 in 10 chance of winning 4th.
Then there's the consolation bonus.

On my server, 1st prize was 1,118,880 for an expected value of 111.888
2nd prize was 105,849 for an expected value of 105.849
3rd prize was 11,592 for an expected value of 115.92
4th prize was 1,159 for an expected value of 115.9
And of course the consolation's expected value was 63.
Adding this up and the total expected value of the cactpot is 512.557.
Minus the cost of the ticket and you get 412.557.

So you should always play the jumbo cactpot and trust that it will pay off in the long run. However, +400 MGP per week is rather unexciting. I'd love it if they buff MGP gains in 3.0. Maybe have a daily jumbo and every 6 hour mini, or something like that. Sure would make the achievements and more expensive items (Cloud, Fenrir) more reasonable.

Edit: I forgot you don't always get the consolation prize LOL (it just seems that way). It doesn't throw the math off by very much though (I think it's -7 MGP from what I said originally).